April - June 2019: Case Summaries
This page includes the detailed summaries of each individual territorial, river, maritime, or identity claim that has been active during this quarter. For more details on the purpose of this quarterly review and for the summary of events during the quarter, see the Overview page.
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This search interface allows you to search through these quarterly reviews for such terms as names of territories, countries, or leaders. (For now, this is limited to ICOW's quarterly reviews of news over territorial, river, maritime, or identity claims, covering events since the beginning of 2019. In the future, we plan to expand this search to include access to summary web pages for each of the more than 1200 claims identified by the ICOW project, which will be created as part of the next external grant that the ICOW project receives.)
Case Summaries: New Claims
Territorial Claims
- No new claims began during this quarter.
River Claims
- Malaysia/Singapore over Johor River - pollution (River #1944):
- After seven incidents since 2017 where chemical spills or dumping affected rivers in Malaysia, Singapore became concerned about the Johor River, which is one of its main sources of fresh water. The river was discussed at an April 9 meeting of prime ministers, during which Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong raised "grave concerns" over the pollution. On May 8, Singaporean Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan urged Malaysia to safeguard the river's water quality for the benefit of both states, and informed his parliament that Malaysia's province of Johor was aware of the concern and that both countries had expressed an interest in working together to safeguard the river.
Maritime Claims
- Belize/Guatemala over Gulf of Honduras (Maritime #2xxx):
- On May 20-21, both chambers of the Belizean legislature overwhelmingly passed the Maritime Areas Amendment Bill, which extended Belize's claim from 3 to 12 nautical miles of territorial waters beyond the coast; the bill was signed by the Governor General on May 22. This claimed distance had been reduced in the 1992 Maritime Areas Act to allow Guatemala access to the high seas through the Gulf of Honduras, as a friendly gesture to facilitate a negotiated settlement of the Guatemalan claim to Belize; with the 12 mile claim, Belizean and Honduran territorial seas would meet in the middle of the Gulf of Honduras and block Guatemalan sovereign access to the high seas. Bilateral negotiations since 1992 had failed to resolve Guatemala's claim to Belize, though, so the Belizean government restored its previous 12 nml claim in preparation for the claim's submission to the International Court of Justice to allow the ICJ to rule on the complete Belizean claim.
Identity Claims
- No new claims began during this quarter.
Case Summaries: Claim Escalation and Provocations
Claim numbers that end in "xx" indicate claims that have begun since the end of the publicly available data set in question and have not yet been assigned a number; this document will be updated in the future when these numbers have been determined.
Territorial Claims
Western Hemisphere
- Canada/USA over Machias Seal Island and surrounding waters (Territory #5 / Maritime #2014): activity in disputed area
- In response to American fishermen's fears that Canadian fishermen were stealing lobsters from American lobster traps in the disputed waters overnight, the Maine government passed legislation allowing Americans to check their traps overnight (previously only Canadian fishermen were allowed to do this). U.S. Senator Susan Collins called on the Commerce Department to work with Maine and Canadian officials to consider ways to improve the cooperative management of the disputed zone.
- Belize/Guatemala over Belize (Territory #66 / Maritime #2xxx): military activity in disputed area / activity in disputed area
- Belize protested in April that three Guatemalan gunboats had entered Belizean waters in the Sarstoon River and blocked passage of several Belizean coast guard vessels. Later in the same day, Belizean vessels were able to undertake a routine patrol in the area without any further Guatemalan interference.
- On April 30, a group of Belizean civilians (the "Belize People's Front") toured Sarstoon Island with a military escort from the Belize Defence Force. After the military escort returned to its base, the civilians planted a Belizean flag on the island. The Guatemalan military, which had been monitoring the tour from a distance, quickly removed the flag. The Belizean military responded to outraged domestic critics by noting that the Guatemalans also routinely plant flags on the island, which are quickly removed by Belizean forces.
- On May 20-21, both chambers of the Belizean legislature overwhelmingly passed the Maritime Areas Amendment Bill, which extended Belize's claim from 3 to 12 nautical miles of territorial waters beyond the coast; the bill was signed by the Governor General on May 22. This claimed distance had been reduced in the 1992 Maritime Areas Act to allow Guatemala access to the high seas through the Gulf of Honduras, as a friendly gesture to facilitate a negotiated settlement of the Guatemalan claim to Belize; with the 12 mile claim, Belizean and Honduran territorial seas would meet in the middle of the Gulf of Honduras and block Guatemalan sovereign access to the high seas. Bilateral negotiations since 1992 had failed to resolve Guatemala's claim to Belize, though, so the Belizean government restored its previous 12 nml claim in preparation for the claim's submission to the International Court of Justice to allow the ICJ to rule on the complete Belizean claim.
Europe
- Estonia/Russia over border (Territory #300): non-military provocation
- A member of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Estonian legislature reported in May that coalition talks between parties that led to the April formation of the current government had included an agreement not to submit the 2005 border treaty to the legislature for ratification, although the chair of the committee and later Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Reinsalu said that no such agreement had been reached during the coalition process. Ratification of the treaty had been stalled since signature by both sides' legislatures. Discussing the border issue, Estonian Interior Minister Mart Helme claimed on May 9 that Russia had not returned 5.2% of Estonia's territory, and indicated that Estonian ratification of the border treaty would depend on Russian recognition of the 1920 Tartu peace treaty (under which Estonia would own currently Russian areas around Pechora/Petseri, Lake Pskov/Pihkva, and the Narva River). He said that Estonia would not go to war over the issue, but would wait for a resolution through the frameworks of international law. Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova described the comments and their implied territorial claim as "absolutely unacceptable" and expressed the hope that this was just a political manifestation of the recent election ("We are ready to wait and hear soberer assumptions").
- A Russian Tu-154 military transport plane briefly violated Estonian airspace near the Baltic Sea island of Vaindloo for less than one minute on May 20, although there was no evidence that this was an intentional provocation. Estonia summoned the Russian ambassador to protest the incident.
- Croatia/Slovenia over land border and Adriatic Sea (Territory #352 / Maritime #2386): non-military provocation
- The Slovenian news source 24ur reported that the Croatian intelligence service had tapped the communications of Jernej Sekolec (the Slovenian-appointed member of the arbitration tribunal) and Simona Drenik (a Slovenian government official). Recordings of the two discussing the arbitration while the case was still being heard were released by Croatian and Serbian news sources in 2015, prompting the two to resign their positions and leading Croatia to end its participation in the proceedings. After 24ur's report, the Slovenian government called a session of the National Security Council, recalled its ambassador from Croatia, and summoned the Croatian ambassador to discuss the matter.
- Greece/Turkey over Aegean Sea (Territory #364 / Maritime #2352): military activity in disputed area
- Turkey held one of its largest-ever military exercises in the Aegean, Mediterranean, and Black Seas from May 13-25. The "Sea Wolf 2019" exercises involved 131 warships, 57 warplanes, and 33 helicopters.
- Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar protested the Greek militarization of the Aegean islets as "contrary to treaties and incompatible with friendship and good neighborly relations," and asked Greece to demilitarize them. [It is not clear whether he was accusing Greece of militarizing the islands recently, or whether he was raising an old issue]
Africa
- Kenya/Uganda over Migingo/Lake Victoria Islands (Territory #534): action against civilians
- Eight Kenyan fishing boats and their 24 occupants were seized by Ugandan officials on Lake Victoria for overfishing on May 23. They were released after paying fines.
- Kenya/South Sudan over Ilemi Triangle (Territory #550): action against civilians
- Epone Emannuel Lolimo, a lawmaker representing Kapoeta State in the South Sudan Parliament, claimed that Kenyan troops had encroached into South Sudan's territory in his district, restricting grazing of animals around the Nadapal area. Parliament responded by summoning Defense Minister Juuk, Foreign Minister Nhial, and Kapoeta State Governor Louise Lobong Lojore, and charging them to seek peaceful engagement with Kenyan authorities in order to avoid unnecessary bloodshed. The Kenyan government claimed that its troop deployment was meant to prevent cattle raiding among the pastoralist communities of Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Uganda who live in the Triangle.
- Mauritius/UK over Chagos Archipelago (Territory #574): non-military provocations
- The UN General Assembly voted on a non-binding resolution calling for the UK to return the islands to Mauritius, following an advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice in the first quarter that called on the UK to end its control of the archipelago. The resolution passed by a 116-6 margin, with 56 abstentions and 15 countries not voting at all. The UK's UN ambassador, Karen Pierce, responded to the vote by indicating that her country was disappointed by the result but had no intention of abandoning the islands; the UK's Foreign and Commonwealth Office later issued a statement indicating that it did not recognize the Mauritian claim but would return the islands to Mauritius when they were no longer needed for defense purposes.
- South Sudan/Sudan over Abyei (Territory #576): military activity in disputed area
- The UN Security Council debated the renewal of the UN peacekeeping force in the disputed Abyei area, with Sudan objecting to the proposal to appoint a civilian UN administrator and increase the size of the UN police force in the area as a violation of Sudanese sovereignty. South Sudan supported the proposal, noting that the status of the area had not yet been determined and that the presence of the UN police force would assist the return of displaced residents to the region. At the conclusion of the debate, the UNSC unanimously passed a May 14 resolution reducing the size of the UN military peacekeeping force, increasing the size of the UN police force in the area, and criticizing both sides for violating their 2011 agreement over Abyei through the occasional presence of South Sudanese security personnel and Sudan's Diffra Oil Police in the area.
Middle East
- Israel/Lebanon border (Territory #740): action against civilians
- Israel installed security cameras along the Blue Line border near the town of Kafr Kila. Lebanese civilians responded by attempting to scale and damage the border fence, leading Israeli forces to use stun grenades and tear gas; no injuries were reported.
Asia and Oceania
- China/Taiwan over Taiwan (Territory #809): military activity / non-military provocation
- After reports that Chinese fishing vessels had been fishing in Taiwanese waters near the island of Matsu, a Taiwanese coast guard ship approached several Chinese boats in Taiwanese waters on April 18, and asked them to leave the area. The Chinese fishermen began throwing rocks at the Taiwanese ship, but quickly left Taiwanese waters after it fired a stun grenade at one of their boats. Taiwan seized two Chinese fishing boats on May 12 for fishing in Taiwanese waters near Matsu, although it is not clear that they were supported by the Chinese government, as the seizures occurred after China had declared a three-month moratorium on fishing in waters that included these waters off Taiwan (which China claims to be a Chinese province).
- Chinese warships and aircraft held a major military exercise in the Taiwan Strait in April, and a six-day exercise with live fire from May 6-10. Taiwan deployed its own ships and aircraft to monitor the situation, and warned that China's "attempts to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait through military operations and public opinion warfare is not conducive to peace in the Taiwan Strait and affects regional stability."
- Two U.S. destroyers traveled through the Taiwan Strait in late April in an action described by the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet as demonstrating "the US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific," which the U.S. Navy described as the 92nd such transit since 2007. China responded by expressing "concern" over the transits and reminding the U.S. that the Taiwan issue is "the most important sensitive issue in Sino-US relations." The destroyer USS Preble and the oiler USNS Walter S. Diehl traveled through the Strait again on May 22; China monitored the passage of the ships and expressed concern.
- Taiwan held its largest live-fire military exercise in five years on May 22, involving 22 ships and numerous fighter jets, to simulate defense against a Chinese invasion.
- Taiwanese national security chief David Lee met with U.S. national security advisor John Bolton while visiting the United States in mid-May, in what was described as the first meeting between top security officials since the U.S. formally ended diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1979. China's foreign ministry responded by saying that it strongly opposed the meeting.
- On June 2, Chinese Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe announced that while his government desired a peaceful reunification with Taiwan, it would not renounce the use of force, and that "If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese military has no choice but to fight at all costs. At all cost, for national unity."
- China/Japan over Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands (Territory #820 / Maritime #2714): military activity in disputed area / activity in disputed area
- A Japanese politician from Ishigaki Island, the Japanese division that claims to include the islands, went fishing in waters around the islands in late May. On the last day of his week-long fishing trip, his boat was pursued by four Chinese patrol vessels for an hour; a Chinese diplomat in Japan described the incident as "normal law enforcement."
- Japanese news sources reported in mid-June that Chinese coast guard vessels had operated within 24 nm of the islands for 60 consecutive days, representing the longest consecutive streak since Japan started tracking it.
- Japan announced plans on June 14 to station a modern patrol vessel with two helicopters near the islands in 2021, following repeated incidents of Chinese vessels entering Japanese-claimed waters.
- Japan protested on June 17 after a Chinese maritime research ship was observed conducting a survey in waters around the islands.
- Japan/Russia over Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Territory #828 / Maritime #2744): military activity in disputed area / non-military provocation
- Russia announced plans to hold a military exercise on the islands from April 4-12, leading Japan to protest and to describe the exercise as unacceptable. Japan protested again on May 30 about the growing Russian military buildup on the islands, which Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya described as "unacceptable to Japan."
- In late April, Russia protested against Japanese statements about the need to reach agreement with Russians living on the island about returning the islands to Japanese control, and for Russia to pay compensation for "occupying" the islands.
- Hodaka Maruyama, a legislator from the opposition Japan Innovation Party, asked a group of former residents of the Kuril Islands whether they would be in favor war with Russia to recover the islands; after their leader dismissed the idea, Maruyama persisted, with reports suggesting he argued that nothing would be accomplished without war. This exchange took place on May 11 while a group of Japanese citizens, including Maruyama and the former residents, were visiting the disputed island of Kunashiri as part of a visa-free exchange program; Maruyama was described by witnesses as drunk. Maruyama soon apologized and retracted his remarks, his party expelled him, and party leadership suggested that he should resign from the legislature. The Japanese government declared that there had been no change in its position that the island issue must be resolved through diplomatic negotiations.
- At a meeting of foreign ministers and defense ministers from May 30-31, Japan protested that recent missile exercises and the deployment of a fighter jet unit to the islands were "unacceptable." Russia responded that the activities were legal under international law and were conducted on territory that was under Russian sovereignty.
- In late June, when Japan hosted the G-20 summit in Osaka, its materials for summit participants included maps showing the islands as Japanese rather than Russian territory. The Russian Foreign Ministry protested on July 2, accusing Japanese leaders of "abusing the G20 chair functions in order to advance the unfounded territorial claims to our country."
- Japan/South Korea over Dokdo/Takeshima (Territory #830 / Maritime #2736): non-military provocation
- Japan released its annual Diplomatic Bluebook summarizing the state of its foreign relations, which included a restatement of the Japanese claim to Dokdo/Takeshima and an allegation that South Korea was responsible for worsening ties. South Korea protested and demanded that Japan retract its claim.
- Azerbaijan/Georgia over border/Davit Gareja Monastery (Territory #856): activity in disputed area / non-military provocation
- Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili visited the Davit Gareja (Keshikchi) Monastery, which is located on the undelimited portion of the border, on April 20. During the visit she met with Georgian border guards and declared that "the issue of border delimitation, which can no longer wait, should be resolved as soon as possible." Azerbaijan responded by blocking access to the Udabno Monastery, which is part of the Davit Gareja complex, for several days. Three days later, Azerbaijan restored Georgian access to the monastery following a Georgian protest, although the number of border guards stationed there increased from two to eighteen and there were reports that the restoration might be only temporary due to the Orthodox Easter holiday. Georgian activists formed a human chain around the disputed area on May 5 to bring more attention to their cause; the Azerbaijani border guards monitored them during this time, while the nearby Georgian border guards maintained order. In later protests, the two sides' border guards worked together to ensure that the protests remained peaceful.
- The activists continued their activities throughout May, particularly after Azerbaijan began road construction that reduced access to the monastery; the Georgian government asked for clarification and warned that no construction could take place in disputed territory without its permission. As the protests continued, Georgian Foreign Minister Davit Zalkaliani noted that all construction projects had been suspended, and called on the public to remain calm during the workings of the delimitation commission. The Georgian foreign ministry later reported that all of the construction had been in Azerbaijan's territory.
- Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan over Batken-Isfara (Territory #874): activity in disputed area
- Ethnic Kyrgyz and Tajik residents of villages in or near the disputed territory engaged in a confrontation on April 22. Kyrgyz residents blocked a road, residents from both groups vandalized cars and broke windows belonging to the other side, and a Tajik man abducted a Kyrgyz boy who had allegedly broken a window before returning him 30 minutes later. Tajik authorities detained three Tajiks who were involved.
- Afghanistan/Pakistan over Durand Line (Territory #908): military activity in disputed area
- Pakistani Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa announced on May 18 that Pakistan was working to expand and strengthen fencing along the border, build new fortifications and outposts, and increase the size of border security forces. These actions were taken in response to several deadly attacks on Pakistani forces by militants that were believed to be operating from bases across the border, which had led to frequent episodes of cross-border shelling by both Pakistani and Afghan forces in recent years. Afghanistan had consistently rejected similar Pakistani fencing projects as malicious efforts to legitimize the current location of the disputed border.
- Bhutan/China over border (Territory #914): military activity near disputed area
- China was reported to have been building up military forces on the Chinese side of the disputed Doklam Plateau. Bhutan's Bhutan’s Prime Minister Lotay Tshering called on China to maintain the status quo and avoid any unilateral action.
- India/Pakistan over [Indian-administered] Kashmir (Territory #922): fatal conflict
- Shelling across the border in Kashmir on April 2 killed three Pakistani soldiers, one Indian soldier, and three civilians. Two more civilians in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir were killed by Indian shelling on May 5, reportedly bringing the total to at least sixteen civilians killed in 2019 so far.
- India deployed air defense systems close to the Pakistani border in mid-May, after reviewing the lessons of the February 2019 air clashes.
- India/Pakistan over [Pakistan-administered] Kashmir (Territory #922): non-military provocation
- In mid-May, India's University Grant Commisssion (the regulatory body in charge of higher education), warned Indian citizens not to study at colleges, universities, or technical centers in Pakistani-adminstered Kashmir, because it considers that area to be an integral part of India but the universities there are not accredited by Indian authorities.
- China/Vietnam over Paracel (Hoang Sa) Islands (Territory #946 / Maritime #2810?): military activity near disputed area / activity near disputed area
- China held a sailboat race around Drummond Island, part of the Paracel (Hoang Sa/Xisha) chain, from April 22-26. Vietnam protested the race as a serious violation of its sovereignty, and demanded that China not repeat any more such activities.
- The Vietnam Fisheries Society protested to their government that fishermen from a Chinese-flagged ship had boarded a Vietnamese ship fishing near the Paracel Islands on June 2, and stolen two tons of squid. The Society demanded that the Vietnamese government take action against China to ensure the safety of Vietnamese fishermen.
- Satellite images showed that China had deployed at least four fighter jets to Woody Island (Yongxing), likely sometime in June.
- China/Philippines over Spratly Islands (Territory #984 / Maritime #2802): military activity in disputed area / activity in disputed area / non-military provocation
- China dismissed April allegations by a Filipino politician that Chinese coast guard vessels were harassing Filipino fishermen around Scarborough Shoal (Panatag Shoal/Huangyan Dao), noting that the Filipino military command responsible for that area had not received any reports of harassment. The shoal had been considered traditional Filipino fishing grounds until China seized it in 2012, although Filipino fishermen had reportedly been allowed to return to the waters in 2016; Filipino Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources cautioned local fishermen to avoid the shoal "for the meantime" and focus on fishing in local waters during the current controversy. Philippines Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin filed a protest in April after Filipino reported that Chinese fishermen were "mass harvesting" endangered giant clams around Scarborough Shoal, and promised to take legal action; Chinese fishermen were again suspected of harvesting the clams in mid-May. The Philippines protested again on June 11 after a routine Philippine Coast Guard patrol near Scarborough Shoal observed two Chinese Coast Guard vessels, two militia boats, and one naval ship in the area.
- The Philippines also protested the presence of several hundred Chinese vessels around Thitu Island (Pag-asa/Zhongye) as a clear violation of Filipino sovereignty, and insisted that the Chinese fishing vessels should leave the area and desist from any action that threatens regional peace and stability. Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte, who had been criticized for being too soft on China with regard to the Spratly dispute, on 4/4/19 warned China to "lay off" the area and "do not touch" the island because the Philippines has soldiers there, who would be prepared to fight for their country's interests. Several days later, the Filipino government similarly warned China to "go away" from Loaita Island (Kota/Nanyue Dao) and Lankiam Cay (Panata/Yangxin Shazhou), both of which were administered by the Philippines. China replied that the Spratly (Nansha) Islands were Chinese territory as backed by historical and jurisprudential evidence, leading to a Filipino response reminding China of the 2016 ITLOS tribunal ruling favoring the Philippines and warning China not to put Filipino fishermen at risk. The Chinese government assured the Filipino ambassador to Beijing in later April that Chinese forces would not occupy Thitu/Pag-asa. Filipino Special envoy to China Ramon Tulfo reported in June that most or all of the Chinese vessels had withdrawn from the area as a goodwill gesture, but the Defense Department indicated that it still needed to verify the report. Dozens of Chinese vessels were reported in the area again in late June.
- China declared a moratorium on fishing from May-August in about half of the South China Sea, mostly in areas also claimed by other states, to "promote sustainable marine fishery development and improve marine ecology.". The Chinese Coast Guard reported that it would monitor the zone covered by this moratorium 24 hours a day and would take action against any violators. Vietnam and the Philippines protested the ban as a violation of their sovereignty, while Taiwan warned its fishermen about the ban (neither Brunei nor Malaysia has any claims to waters covered by the ban). Analysts speculated that the main point of declaring the moratorium was to remind observers of the Chinese claim to the area, and remained skeptical that action would be taken against non-Chinese vessels. Filipino Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana announced on May 28 that the ban only applied to Chinese fishermen, and that Filipino fishermen could continue to fish in the waters in question.
- Filipino National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon Jr. reported on 4/24/19 that the government was considering declaring the waters around Thitu (Pag-asa) Island and Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal to be marine protected areas, following reports of Chinese fishermen harvesting endangered giant clams in the Philippines-claimed waters. The Philippines Supreme Court issued an order in May directing the government to take action to protect and rehabilitate the marine environment around Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal and Mischief Reef, and a government spokesman indicated that they government would comply with the order.
- A Philippine Coast Guard vessel patrolling near Panganiban Reef (Mischief Reef) and Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal) experienced electronic signal jamming, and was unable to communicate with its base via satellite phone during the patrol. China, which has bases near the area where the vessel was patrolling, was widely suspected of jamming the signals, although no formal accusation was made.
- A Chinese fishing boat rammed a Filipino boat near Reed/Recto Bank on June 9 and fled, causing it to sink; a Vietnamese vessel in the area rescued the crew. Filipino Defense Secretary Lorenzana condemned the Chinese ship for both ramming the Filipino boat and then fleeing without trying to rescue its crew and called for diplomatic action to prevent similar actions from happening in the future; the foreign ministry formally protested to China, and demanded that Chinese investigate the incident and punish the ship's crew. Several days later, China's ambassador reported that the incident was under investigation and that the crew would be punished if it were found to be at fault, although the Chinese foreign ministry described the incident as "an ordinary maritime traffic accident" and accused the Philippines government of politicizing the incident before the investigation could be completed. Acknowledging the Chinese plan to investigate the matter, on June 16 Philippines Vice President Robredo expressed doubt about the result and asked that the crew be sent to the Philippines for trial in Philippine courts. President Duterte warned against acting too hastily, calling for the Chinese investigation to be completed before he would issue a statement, and later referring to it as "a little maritime accident"; Agriculture Secretary Pinol also called the incident a "maritime incident, plain and simple" that was being blown "out of proportion," and Defense Secretary Lorenzana described it as "just an accident" and speculated that the Chinese boat "didn’t mean to brush against our boat." On June 20, the Chinese government proposed that the two governments undertake a joint investigation of the incident, and Philippines President Duterte (against the judgment of Foreign Secretary Locsin, Vice President Robredo, and others) accepted the offer with the provision that a neutral third party also be involved along with both Chinese and Filipino representatives; this was followed by a long debate in the Philippines over whether to undertake a joint investigation with or without the involvement of a third party.
- China/Malaysia over Spratly Islands (Territory #984 / Maritime #2802): military activity in disputed area
- A Chinese coast guard vessel patrolled around Luconia Breakers, a reef cluster in the Spratlys near where Malaysia has issued an oil exploration permit, from May 10-27. The vessel "circled provocatively" within 80 meters of two Malaysian supply ships operating in the area.
- China/Vietnam over Spratly Islands (Territory #984 / Maritime #2802): military activity in disputed area
- China declared a moratorium on fishing from May-August in about half of the South China Sea, mostly in areas also claimed by other states, to "promote sustainable marine fishery development and improve marine ecology.". The Chinese Coast Guard reported that it would monitor the zone covered by this moratorium 24 hours a day and would take action against any violators. Vietnam protested the ban as a violation of Vietnamese sovereignty. Analysts speculated that the main point of declaring the moratorium was to remind observers of the Chinese claim to the area, and remained skeptical that action would be taken against non-Chinese vessels.
- Philippines/Taiwan over Spratly Islands (Territory #984 / Maritime #2802): military activity in disputed area
- The Philippines ship BRP Andres Bonifacio encountered the Taiwanese ship Wu Chang in the Bashi Channel, an area where the two sides have overlapping maritime claims. The Taiwanese ship had been monitoring a Filipino project constructing a shelter for fishermen on Mavulis Island (Y'Ami) that also included a lighthouse, helipad, and military outpost to stop foreign poaching in nearby waters. The two ships followed standard protocols for unexpected encounters at sea, and proceeded on their way without any incident.
River Claims
Western Hemisphere
- (none)
Europe
- (none)
Africa
- (none)
Middle East
- Iraq/Turkey over Tigris River - Ilisu Dam (River #1724): activity in disputed area
- Turkey announced plans to begin filling the reservoir of the Ilisu Dam in June. The process was expected to take 2-3 years to complete, leading to great concern by Iraq over the reduction of water flowing into Iraq until the reservoir was filled. The Iraqi Water Ministry indicated that there was an understanding between Iraq and Turkey that the Turkish project would not completely stop the flow of the Tigris and would not interfere with the Zab River, another important river that flows from Turkey into Iraq, although there was no formal agreement over this.
Asia and Oceania
- India/Pakistan over Indus River Basin rivers (various river claims): non-military provocation
- India's Union Minister Nitin Gadkari discussed India's plan to build six more dams on the rivers that were allocated to India in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, in order to retain all of the water allocated to India rather than allowing some of its allocation to flow unused into Pakistan. Pakistan's Foreign Office accused India of violating the Indus Waters Treaty, warned India against "water terrorism," and called on the World Bank to empanel an arbitral court to resolve the resulting disputes.
Maritime Claims
Western Hemisphere
- Canada/USA over Northwest Passage (Maritime #2006): non-military provocation
- Speaking at a meeting of the Arctic Council in Finland, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described Canada's claim to sovereignty over the Northwest Passage as an "illegitimate claim." Analysts described this as statement as provocative and a "stunning rebuke" of the 1988 Agreement on Arctic Cooperation between U.S. President Reagan and Canadian Prime Minister Mulroney, in which the U.S. had agreed to request Canadian consent when American vessels wished to pass through Canadian-claimed waters but did not recognize the Canadian claim or abandon its own claim to these waters.
Europe
- Ireland/UK over Rockall fishing (Maritime #2xxx): military activity in disputed area
- Scotland's Cabinet Secretary for External Affairs, Fiona Hyslop, notified the Irish government on June 7 that effective the following weekend, Scotland would deploy vessels around the islet of Rockall to take "enforcement action" against any Irish fishing boats within 12 nautical miles of the rock. Ireland rejected the warning, noting that Irish vessels had been fishing in the area for decades under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy; the Irish government did meet with fishing industry representatives to warn them about the Scottish threat, but they insisted that they would continue to fish in the area. Scotland began raising the issue in 2017 after the UK voted for Brexit; the matter had been under discussion by the governments since then. This is not a territorial claim because Ireland does not claim sovereignty over Rockall; instead, it only rejects UK claims of sovereignty and considers it to be an uninhabitable rock rather than an island.
- After the Scottish threat, one newspaper reported that Ireland had deployed a naval vessel to the area around Rockall, seeking to protect several Irish vessels that were fishing there. Ireland's Tanaiste [deputy prime minster] Simon Coveney and Marine Minister Michael Creed ruled out any deployment of naval vessels to the area, though, and made clear that their government sought to resolve the matter through dialogue rather than escalating it further.
- In late June, a Scottish tour company announced that it would conduct a tour of Rockall, allowing participants to step onto the island for 15-20 minutes. The tour sold out within a week of being announced, so the company began planning for additional tours in the future.
- Iceland/UK over Rockall fishing (Maritime #2xxx): military activity in disputed area
- The Iceland Ministry of Foreign Affairs on June 21 rejected Scotland's June 7 threat to arrest any foreign fishermen operating in waters around Rockall. They argued that the area was part of Iceland's continental shelf, and rejected Scotland's unilateral actions over an area that is claimed by four entities (Scotland/UK, Ireland, Iceland, Faroe Islands) as prejudicial to the interests of the others.
Africa
- Kenya/Somalia over Indian Ocean (Maritime #2xxx): non-military provocation
- The Somali parliament voted on May 20 to approve a new petroleum law that would allow the government to sign oil exploration contracts beginning in December 2019.
- Reports emerged in early June to show that the controversial Somali government auction for exploration rights included rights in five blocks that are at least partially claimed by Kenya, contradicting claims by the Somali government.
- Kenya protested to the Norwegian government in June over the involvement of the Norwegian oil firm DNO in Somalia's search for oil in the disputed area.
- At the request of Somalia, a member state, the Arab League's Arab Parliament issued a statement on June 20 calling on Kenya to keep its hands off Somali territorial waters (which it termed "Arab waters"), rejecting Kenya's reported map of the disputed waters, and rejecting Kenyan threats to interfere in Somali affairs.
- 20 petitioners, including the lobbying group Foundation for Dialogue and 19 individuals, filed a lawsuit in Kenya on June 28 to block the Kenyan government from participating in the forthcoming ICJ case over the maritime question. They argued that the ICJ case — which has the potential to recognize part or all of the disputed territory as Somali — violates the Kenyan constitution, which prohibits changing national borders without a popular referendum.
Middle East
- Cyprus/Turkey over Eastern Mediterranean (Maritime #2698): military activity in disputed area / activity in disputed area / non-military provocation
- On May 3, a Turkish drilling ship began exploratory drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, accompanied by three support ships and a naval frigate. Cyprus protested this action because the drilling was in waters around 40 miles west of the island but around 80 miles from the Turkish coast, which Cyprus claims as part of its exclusive economic zone but Turkey claims as part of its continental shelf (rejecting the "unilateral and illegitimate" claims of Cyprus in the area). Turkey also seeks to have the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus share in the area's resources, although Cyprus insists that this not be addressed until the TRNC is reunited with the rest of Cyprus. Turkey's actions were opposed by the EU and other states with interests in nearby waters (Greece, Israel, and Egypt), and the United States warned against actions that might escalate tensions in the region; in June the EU described the drilling as "illegal" and warned of sanctions if Turkey persisted. Cyprus threatened to issue an arrest warrant for the crew of the drilling ship in May, and issued arrest warrants for 25 people in June, including crew members aboard the ships as well as individuals in three foreign companies working with the Turkish Petroleum Corporation; Turkey indicated that the warrants "crossed the line" and that "the necessary response will be given" if Cyprus made any effort to enforce them. Turkey sent a second drilling ship, the Yavuz, to waters off the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus on June 20, reportedly accompanied by several Turkish naval vessels for protection.
- Turkey held one of its largest-ever military exercises in the Aegean, Mediterranean, and Black Seas from May 13-25. The "Sea Wolf 2019" exercises involved 131 warships, 57 warplanes, and 33 helicopters.
- Cyprus signed a natural gas export deal with the U.S.-based company Noble Energy on June 7, which would provide more than $9 billion in revenues over the next 18 years. Turkey opposed the deal because it did not allow the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to share in the revenues.
- Israel/Lebanon over Eastern Mediterranean (Maritime #2670): activity in disputed area
- In early April, Lebanon announced that three oil companies (France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek) that had been awarded contracts in 2018 to begin drilling in Lebanese waters would begin their operations in 2019. Drilling would begin in Block 4 of Lebanon's waters first, and then depending on the results, in Block 9 -- which includes some waters also claimed by Israel; the companies were aware of the Israeli claim and indicated that they would only drill in portions of Block 9 that were not disputed by Israel. On April 5, the Lebanese government announced that five offshore blocks would be included in the next bidding for exploration rights, two of which (Blocks 8 and 10) included waters claimed by Israel.
- Lebanon/Syria over Eastern Mediterranean (Maritime #2xxx): activity in disputed area
- On April 5, the Lebanese government announced that five offshore blocks would be included in the next bidding for exploration rights, two of which (Blocks 1 and 2) included waters claimed by Syria. A Lebanese official noted at the announcement that there is “a difference in perspective from the Syrian side regarding the border, but there are joint committees currently discussing the issue.”
Asia and Oceania
- India/Pakistan over Sir Creek (Maritime #2xxx): action against civilians
- Pakistani forces apprehended 34 Indian fishermen in six fishing boats on May 6 for fishing on the Pakistani side of the international maritime boundary line in the Arabian Sea, then another 22 fishermen in four boats on May 8.
- India/Sri Lanka over Palk Strait fishing (Maritime #2xxx): action against civilians
- Sri Lankan officials seized 18 Indian fisherman and their three vessels on April 4 for fishing illegally in Sri Lankan waters beyond the International Maritime Boundary Line. India protested that they had been fishing in Indian waters when the Sri Lankan vessels seized them. The fishermen were released on June 15.
- The Sri Lankan Navy arrested four Indian fisherman and seized their boat on June 26 for fishing in the Palk Bay across the International Maritime Boundary Line. A Sri Lankan vessel rammed another Indian fishing boat that had crossed the IMBL on June 29, seriously injuring four fishermen; other Indian fishermen rescued them and brought them back to India for medical treatment.
- China/Indonesia over Natuna Islands fishing rights (Maritime #29xx): action against civilians
- Indonesia announced that it would sink 51 foreign fishing boats -- 38 of them Vietnamese, with the rest Chinese and Malaysian -- that had been seized for fishing in Indonesian waters. This was done over several days, beginning on May 4.
- Indonesia/Malaysia over fishing (Maritime #2852): action against civilians
- Indonesia announced that it would sink 51 foreign fishing boats -- 38 of them Vietnamese, but including some Chinese and Malaysian -- that had been seized for fishing in Indonesian waters. This was done over several days, beginning on May 4.
- Indonesia/Vietnam over Natuna Islands fishing rights (Maritime #2816): action against civilians / military activity in disputed area
- An Indonesian patrol vessel seized a Vietnamese fishing boat for fishing illegally in Indonesian waters near the Natuna Islands on April 27. Two Vietnamese coast guard ships then rammed the Indonesian vessel, and the seized fishing boat sank; the Indonesian ship rescued and arrested twelve of its occupants, and the Vietnamese ships rescued two others. Vietnam protested that the boat had been fishing in an area where the two sides had been working to establish clear EEZ delimitation, rather than in clearly Indonesian waters.
- The next day, Indonesia announced that it would sink 51 foreign fishing boats -- 38 of them Vietnamese, with the rest Chinese and Malaysian -- that had been seized for fishing in Indonesian waters. This was done over several days, beginning on May 4.
- Australia/East Timor over Timor Gap (Maritime #2862): non-military provocation
- Newspaper investigation revealed that Australia had been taking millions of dollars each month in oil revenue from oil fields on the Timorese side of the maritime border that was agreed in 2018, because Australia had not yet ratified the treaty. Before the treaty, Australia had received 10% of the revenue from those fields, but the treaty recognized the fields as fully Timorese. After the publication of this report, leading Australian politicians declined to commit to returning these funds to East Timor once the treaty was eventually ratified.
- Malaysia/Singapore over airspace and waters (Maritime #2xxx): activity in disputed area
- On April 2, Malaysia announced plans to build what it called the world's largest ship-to-ship transfer facility in the Strait of Johor, to allow ships to transfer cargo without needing to dock in port. Prime Minister Mohamad claimed that the project was not located in disputed waters, but Singapore requested more details about the precise location and possible implications of the project for Singapore.
Identity Claims
Western Hemisphere
- (none)
Europe
- Hungary/Romania over Hungarians in Transylvania (Identity #3286): non-military provocation
- Hungary protested over a June incident at the war memorial and military cemetery at Valea Uzului (Uzvolgye in Hungarian) in Transylvania. The memorial includes 600 wooden crosses to commemorate Hungarian soldiers who died there in World War I; the surrounding county of Harghita is approximately 85% ethnic Hungarian (Szekely). The local town of Darmanesti announced plans to add 52 concrete grave markers and an Orthodox cross, to commemorate Romanian soldiers who died fighting the Axis powers (including Hungary) in World War II. Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto summoned the Romanian ambassador to protest the incident, and asked the Romanian government to stop provocations by Romanian nationalists. The ambassador refused the summons, but one report suggested that the two countries' defense ministries would work together to solve the problem.
- Hungary/Ukraine over Hungarians in Transcarpathia (Identity #3288): non-military provocation
- On April 25, Ukraine's parliament passed a new language law requiring all Ukrainian citizens to know the Ukrainian language; requiring the use of the Ukrainian language for all official duties by public sector workers (including government officials, soldiers, doctors, and teachers); requiring that all signs and advertisements use the Ukrainian language; and setting a goal of 90% Ukrainian content on local TV channels. Hungary protested that the law discriminated against the rights of ethnic Hungarians in western Ukraine, and Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto expressed hope that the situation could be "clarified in a dialogue with the country’s new president on the basis of mutual respect." This law had been championed by outgoing Ukrainian President Poroshenko, who promised to sign it before leaving office; incoming President Zelensky said that his government would look into the law after taking office to see if the rights of all citizens were respected ("We must initiate and adopt laws and decisions that consolidate society, and not vice versa").
- Russia/Ukraine over Russians in Eastern Ukraine (Identity #3302): fatal conflict / non-military provocations
- There were almost daily incidents of shelling or other cross-border firing throughout this quarter; the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission reports 85,483 ceasefire violations and 1732 explosions due to artillery, mortar, rocket, or tank fire during the quarter, and the Wikipedia daily summary reports at least 44 fatalities (24 Ukrainian military and 20 separatist or pro-separatist forces).
- On April 24, Russia announced that it would expedite applications for Russian passports by residents of separatist-controlled regions in eastern Ukraine, and on May 1 this was extended to people born in Crimea or the separatist areas of eastern Ukraine who moved away before 2014 and their relatives; Russian President Putin even suggested in late April that this policy could be extended to residents of any part of Ukraine. Ukraine's outgoing president, Petro Poroshenko, described this as “another unprecedented intervention by the Russian Federation into the internal affairs of a sovereign state,” while Ukraine's new president-elect, Volodymyr Zelensky, described Russia an "aggressor state, waging war against Ukraine" and an "occupier state," and called for more international sanctions against Russia; Russian President Vladimir Putin described the action as purely humanitarian. Ukraine raised the matter at the UN Security Council, where the Ukrainian representative accused Russia of "occupation" and "creeping annexation" of the separatist regions; the Russian representative denied these charges and argued that Ukraine had made living conditions "impossible" in the separatist regions and effectively "outlawed" the regions' four million residents by imposing a total economic blockade and denying government services and benefits. Zelensky later posted on Facebook in both Ukrainian and Russian to offer Ukrainian citizenship to "all people who suffer from authoritarian and corrupt regimes," specifically mentioning "the Russian people, who suffer most of all." The first sixty Russian passports were handed out on June 14, chosen from a reported 12,000 applications. In response, the EU warned that it would not recognize passports that were produced under this program, and Ukraine threatened to revoke the citizenship of any Ukrainian who participates in it.
- The day after Russia's passport announcement, Ukraine's parliament passed a new language law requiring all Ukrainian citizens to know the Ukrainian language; requiring the use of the Ukrainian language for all official duties by public sector workers (including government officials, soldiers, doctors, and teachers); requiring that all signs and advertisements use the Ukrainian language; and setting a goal of 90% Ukrainian content on local TV channels. Russia charged that this law discriminates against Ukrainian citizens whose first language is Russian, including many residents in the separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. This law had been championed by outgoing Ukrainian President Poroshenko, who promised to sign it before leaving office; incoming President Zelensky, whose first language was Russian, said that his government would look into the law after taking office to see if the rights of all citizens were respected ("We must initiate and adopt laws and decisions that consolidate society, and not vice versa").
- Newly elected President Zelensky took office in Ukraine on May 20. Speaking in both Ukrainian and Russian, he called on all Ukrainians (regardless of ethnicity) to "live happily with each other, despite any differences" and said that ending the conflict with Russian-backed rebels in the east would be his top priority, although he added that dialogue with Russia could not take place until after the release of Ukrainian territory and prisoners of war. Russian President Putin declined to congratulate Zelensky, with a spokesman describing the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine as a Ukrainian "domestic problem" and indicating that he would wait until "the first successes in settling the internal conflict in south-eastern Ukraine, and in normalising Russian-Ukrainian relations."
- Albania/Greece over Greeks in Albania (Identity #3322): non-military provocation
- Albania announced a plan to remove bilingual road signs from ethnic Greek villages around Finiki. Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Katrougalos responded by indicating that Greece would undertake legal action to protect ethnic Greeks in Albania, and warning that one of the conditions for Albania joining the EU is support for minority rights and that Greece could block Albanian membership if these rights were not protected.
- Kosovo/Serbia over Serbs in Northern Kosovo (Identity #3338): action against civilians / military activity near disputed area
- On May 28, Kosovo police with armored vehicles entered Serb-majority areas in northern Kosovo and made more than 20 arrests. Kosovo President Hashim Thaci described the operation as an "anti-smuggling and organised crime operation" and asked the local Serbian population to cooperate with the police. Two police officers were reported injured during the operation, and two members of the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) were wounded and detained for obstructing the operation; one of them, a Russian, was initially released due to UN immunity, but Kosovo then tried to get his immunity removed. Serbian government official Marko Djuric described this operation as "not only a threat to stability but the most direct threat to peace" and as designed to intimidate and expel Serbs from Kosovo.
- In response to the Kosovo operation, Serbia put its military forces near the border on full alert, and Serbian troop movements were reported in the area. In June, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic told the Russian newspaper Izvestia that if the international peacekeepers in Kosovo were unable to ensure the security of the ethnic Serbian population there, Serbia "will have to react," although he hoped that this would not be needed.
Africa
- (none)
Middle East
- Bahrain/Iran over Shiites in Bahrain (Identity #3xxx): non-military provocation
- A court in Bahrain sentenced 138 Shiites to jail and stripped them of their Bahraini citizenship for allegedly conspiring to form an Iranian-backed terrorist organization within Bahrain. Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ordered on 4/21/19 that 551 individuals have their nationality reinstated after having it stripped, although details remained sparse on which individuals were affected and why; at least 990 people's nationality had been stripped since 2012.
Asia and Oceania
- Armenia/Azerbaijan claim over Nagorno-Karabakh (Identity #3842): fatal conflict / military activity in disputed area / non-military provocation
- Almost daily reports alleged firing across the border. At least once, on May 30, an Armenian sniper from Nagorno-Karabakh killed an Azeri soldier.
- Foreign ministers from the European Union and the six Eastern Partnership countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) met in Brussels from May 13-14. The meeting -- which was intended to make general progress in the region rather than to address specific contentious issues -- ended without an agreed closing statement when Azerbaijan objected that the draft statement did not mention the territorial integrity of all member states; Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov warned that "If we are to move together... to help the EU realize its neighborhood policy objectives, the issues of resolution of conflicts and de-occupation must be addressed."
- Armenia began military exercises in Nagorno-Karabakh on June 17, reportedly involving 10,000 soldiers. The government of Azerbaijan used these exercises to question Armenia's commitment to the upcoming OSCE-mediated peace talks.
Case Summaries: Peaceful Claim Management and Settlement
Claim numbers that end in "xx" indicate claims that have begun since the end of the publicly available data set in question and have not yet been assigned a number; this document will be updated in the future when these numbers have been determined.
Territorial Claims
Western Hemisphere
- Colombia/Nicaragua over Quita Sueno-Roncador-Serrana (Territory #56 / Maritime #2062): binding adjudication - ICJ (no agreement/case remains ongoing)
- This case remained under consideration at the International Court of Justice during the quarter.
- Belize/Guatemala over Belize (Territory #66): binding adjudication - ICJ (no agreement/case remains ongoing)
- The Chief Justice of Belize's Supreme Court issued an April 3 injunction against the referendum that was to be held on April 10 over whether or not Belize should proceed with submitting the dispute to the International Court of Justice (a referendum in Guatemala had already approved this in 2018). Prime Minister Dean Barrow indicated that the government was disappointed by the injunction, the government immediately appealed against the injunction, and the country's chief elections officer ordered that preparations for the referendum continue. The Court of Appeals held an April 8 hearing on the appeal and declined to intervene in the injunction on procedural grounds, as Belizean law requires 21 days before an appeal can be heard, although noting that an urgent appeal could be directed to the Caribbean Court of Justice; no CCJ appeal was filed, so the hearing on the Belizean court appeal was scheduled for April 29. After this ruling, the government acknowledged that the vote would have to be postponed, and introduced a new referendum bill in parliament on April 12 to try to avoid the legal challenges that had been raised to the previous referendum plan. The new bill passed both the House and Senate after contentious debate, and the new referendum was held on May 8. In the referendum, approximately 65% of eligible voters voted, and over 55% supported submission of the case to the ICJ. Guatemala applauded the result, and the Belizean government submitted its notification to the ICJ on June 7 to set the case in motion; Guatemala had previously submitted its notification in 2018 after its referendum had passed. This case thus began consideration at the International Court of Justice during the quarter.
- Following the referendum outcome, representatives of Belize and Guatemala met to continue past discussions toward a Sarstoon Protocol that would govern shared access to the Sarstoon (Sarstun) River along the border, which has seen several incidents during this quarter.
- Guyana/Venezuela over Essequibo (Territory #112 / Maritime #2110): binding adjudication - ICJ (no agreement/case remains ongoing)
- This case remained under consideration at the International Court of Justice during the quarter. Venezuela declined the opportunity to submit a written counter-memorial on the jurisdiction of the court in this case, which would have been due on April 18 (Guyana had submitted its memorial in November 2018). After the date passed, Guyana urged the court to rule on its jurisdiction as soon as possible.
Europe
- Estonia/Russia over border (Territory #300): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the as yet unratified 2005 border treaty in an April meeting in Moscow, leading to hopes that progress might finally be made.
- Kosovo/Serbia over Kosovo (Territory #340.3) and Kosovo/Serbia over Presevo Valley (Territory #340.4): other (peacekeeping) / non-binding mediation - France/Germany (procedural agreement)
- The UNMIK peacekeeping force continued operations during the quarter (see related documents and publications).
- France and Germany arranged a meeting between officials from Serbia and Kosovo in Berlin on April 29, the first direct talks since Kosovo imposed a 100% tariff on Serbian goods in late 2018; this was part of a Western Balkan summit that also included leaders from Bosnia, Croatia, Montenegro, and Slovenia. Johannes Hahn, the EU commissioner for neighborhood policy and enlargement, indicated before the meeting that a possible land swap or border adjustment could be included in any final agreement, as long as the agreement would contribute to peace and stability, and as long as it covered additional elements beyond the border itself like minority rights; German Chancellor Angela Merkel and others strongly opposed any sort of territorial change as a precursor to future conflict. The meeting ended with an agreement to continue "constructive" talks to resolve the issue, and to move forward on efforts to implement existing agreements.
- Reports emerged in late May that the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia had been engaging in secret negotiations with the mediation of Federica Mogherini, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. A tentative agreement had supposedly been reached that would be revealed publicly in late June, shortly before the leaders' next meeting in Paris on July 1 (this announcement did not occur). This agreement reportedly called for Serbia to recognize Kosovo as an independent state, Kosovo to cede North Mitrovica and four other Serbian communities to Serbia, and Serbia to cede 4-7 Albanian villages from the Presevo Valley to Kosovo; an Association of Serbian Minority Communities would be created to manage the affairs of other Serbian communities that remained in Kosovo; Gazivoda Lake (an important water source) would become a trust territory under the supervision of an international organization; and there was apparently no agreement yet on the status of the Trepca mines.
- Serbian President Vucic and Kosovo President Thaci spoke on a panel at the GLOBSEC forum in Bratislava. Vucic argued that Serbia was doing its best to reach agreement with Kosovo, but that the main disagreement involved the claim that Kosovo is independent rather than part of Serbia (which remains his government's official position). Thaci noted that talks were currently in a state of crisis but expressed hope that agreement could be reached in 2019, perhaps at the Paris summit of Western Balkan leaders in July. Montenegrin President Dukanovic and an EU representative both called on Kosovo and Serbia to settle the matter for the benefit of the entire region.
- Croatia/Slovenia over land border and Adriatic Sea (Territory #352 / Maritime #2386): binding adjudication - ECJ (no agreement/case remains ongoing)
- This case remained under consideration at the European Court of Justice during the quarter.
- Greece/Turkey over Aegean Sea (Territory #364 / Maritime #2352): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Greek and Turkish foreign ministry officials met in Athens in mid-April to assess the situation in the Aegean and to discuss ways to improve bilateral relations.
- Greek and Turkish defense officials met in Athens from May 20-25 to discuss cooperation in the Aegean, including confidence building measures and a code of conduct.
Africa
- Guinea/Sierra Leone over Yenga (Territory #430): bilateral negotiations (substantive agreement - possible claim ending?)
- Sierra Leone's Foreign Minister Dr. Allie Kabbah met on April 24 with Guinea's president, foreign minister, and internal affairs minister to discuss the Yenga issue. He reported in May that the dispute had been resolved: Guinea affirmed that Yenga was part of Sierra Leone and would allow Sierra Leonean citizens to return to the area for the first time since Guinean forces occupied it, while Sierra Leone would build a bridge from Yenga to Guinea and reopen the local market that had previously been an important point for trade between the two countries. There has been little media coverage since Kabbah made this claim, so more research is needed before this claim can be considered to have ended (several earlier meetings between leaders led to premature declarations that the claim had ended).
- Kenya/Uganda over Migingo/Lake Victoria Islands (Territory #534): other (progress toward demarcation)
- Following an agreement between the two countries' leaders in March, Kenyan Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Juma announced that the process of border demarcation would soon begin. She emphasized that this process would only involve clarifying the existing boundaries along the entire length of the border -- particularly around Migingo Island -- to remove uncertainty, rather than negotiating new boundaries; they would also work on creating additional border crossings, easing cross-border movement for local residents on both sides, and providing guidelines on sharing resources that straddle the border. Both sides were set to appoint experts to a joint survey team to carry out these tasks.
- Kenya/South Sudan over Ilemi Triangle (Territory #550): bilateral negotiations (functional agreement)
- Kenyan Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Monica Juma met with South Sudan's Foreign Minister Nhial in June to discuss the border at the Ilemi Triangle tripoint with Ethiopia. The two sides signed a memorandum of understanding reaffirming their goal of settling the border and improving security and cooperation between the countries.
- Malawi/Tanzania over Lake Nyasa/Malawi border (Territory #610): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Tanzanian President Magufuli visited Malawi in April for talks with Malawi President Mutharika, which were expected by observers to address the territorial question.
- South Sudan/Sudan over Abyei (Territory #576): other (peacekeeping)
- The UNISFA peacekeeping force continued operations during the quarter (see related documents and publications).
- France/Madagascar over Iles Eparses/Scattered Islands (Territory #644): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- The presidents of France and Madagascar announced in late May that their countries would set up a joint commission to resolve the dispute over the islands by June 2020, the 60th anniversary of Magadascar's independence. They emphasized that this would be a bilateral process, with no need for third party mediation, arbitration, or adjudication.
Middle East
- Israel/Lebanon border (Territory #740): other (peacekeeping) / non-binding mediation - USA/UN (no agreement)
- The UNIFIL (see related documents and publications) and UNTSO (see related documents and publications) peacekeeping forces continued operations during the quarter.
- It was reported that the UN, United States, and Cyprus had all been working to mediate between Israel and Lebanon over the land and/or maritime borders, including U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's March visit to Israel and Lebanon and Cyprus Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulidis's March visit to Lebanon. Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri met with U.S. Ambassador Elizabeth Richard on May 9 to discuss a new framework for drawing the border, seeking U.S. mediation to assist with the process, and U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield met with Lebanese President Michel Aoun, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil in Beirut on May 14-15. Satterfield then went to Israel to present Lebanon's proposals to Israeli officials and returned to Lebanon on May 20, where he informed the Lebanese government that Israel was willing to negotiate to settle the maritime border and to discuss disputed sections of the land border; of more than 200 border points laid out in the UN-assisted Blue Line, only 13 remained disputed. The talks were to be held with U.S. mediation at the headquarters of the UNIFIL peacekeeping operation in Lebanon, although sources disagreed on whether Israel would allow the UN to be an active participant in the mediation. Satterfield returned to Israel on May 27 to meet with Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, before returning to Beirut on May 28; Lebanese officials described the talks as making good progress toward determining the specific details of the negotiation process. An Israeli official stated on June 4 that the talks would only cover the maritime border, though, marking an apparent reversal of the government's earlier agreement to cover both the maritime and land borders. Satterfield met with Lebanese leaders on June 12 and returned to Israel on June 13, seeking to finalize the dates and details of the talks.
- The UN peacekeeping mission hosted a June 11 meeting of Israeli and Lebanese military officials to discuss the situation along the Blue Line land border, including the territorial claim over northern Ghajar and both land and air border violations.
- Israel/Syria over Golan Heights (Territory #744): other (peacekeeping)
- The UNDOF (see related documents and publications) and UNTSO (see related documents and publications) peacekeeping forces continued operations during the quarter.
Asia and Oceania
- China/Japan over Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands (Territory #820 / Maritime #2714): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang held talks in Beijing on April 15. The talks covered a wide range of topics, including the East China Sea dispute.
- Japan/Taiwan over Tiaoyu/Senkaku Islands (Territory #820 / Maritime #2714): bilateral negotiations (functional agreement)
- Japanese and Taiwanese officials reached agreement on fishing rights around the disputed islands during the upcoming fishing season, following unsuccessful talks in March. They agreed to follow the existing rules governing fishing in the area.
- Japan/Russia over Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Territory #828 / Maritime #2744): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- The two states' deputy foreign ministers met in Tokyo on 4/2/19 to discuss bilateral ties and the schedule of future dialogue, as well as to exchange views on "vital issues of regional and global agenda." Plans were made for at least one May meeting between foreign ministers, plus another "2+2" meeting featuring both sides' foreign ministers and defense ministers, before a meeting between the countries' leaders during the G20 summit in June.
- Japanese Senior Deputy Foreign Minister Takeo Mori and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov held April talks that culminated in an agreement to discuss joint economic activity on the islands and to allow visa-free civilian travel to the islands without jeopardizing the territorial claim. Future talks on this matter would be held separately from the ongoing talks over sovereignty.
- Japanese Foreign Minister Kono visited Moscow on May 10 for three days of talks with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Lavrov began the talks by informing Kono that "major differences" remained between the two countries' positions, but that he was optimistic that the talks could help them find some common ground. After the talks ended, the two stated that they had not been able to overcome their differences, and that much effort was still needed before they would be able to settle the issue.
- The two states' foreign ministers and defense ministers held "2+2" talks in Tokyo on May 30-31. The talks discussed the island question but failed to reach agreement, leading the Japanese government to acknowledge that its goal of reaching a settlement before their leaders' next planned meeting at the G-20 summit was no longer realistic.
- The two leaders met at the G-20 summit in Osaka on June 29. During this meeting they agreed on expanding bilateral economic ties, including moving forward on joint economic activities on the islands with sightseeing tours and air travel to the islands to allow former residents to visit the graves of their relatives. They were unable to reach any substantive agreement settling the islands issue, though, beyond expressing a shared determination to continue talks to resolve the issue and noting that the two sides' positions were becoming clear.
- Azerbaijan/Georgia over border/Davit Gareja Monastery (Territory #856): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Following Azerbaijan's decision to block Georgian access to the Udabno Monastery in the Davit Gareja (Keshikchi) Monastery complex, Georgian citizens protested, and the Georgian Foreign Minister David Zalkaliani held intensive talks with his counterpart in Azerbaijan. Following the talks, Zalkaliani reported that "the problem is resolved for the moment," and Azerbaijan restored Georgian access -- but reports indicated that this restoration may have been temporary for the Orthodox Easter holiday.
- In February, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili had visited Azerbaijan to meet with President Ilham Aliyev. Although the border issue was apparently not discussed in substantive terms during the meeting, Zurabishvili expressed afterward that the two had agreed in principle to restart the operation of the border delimitation commission to settle the 34% of the border that remained undelimited. No meetings had been held recently due to the departure of several members of the delimitation commission. The commission resumed activity with meetings in Baku on April 17, May 14, and May 23-24, agreeing to proceed by analyzing documents and maps related to unsettled portions of the border and to hold joint visits to the unsettled areas by experts from each side.
- Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan over Batken-Isfara (Territory #874): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Delegations led by Kyrgyz Vice Prime Minister Razakov and Tajik Deputy Prime Minister Ibrohim met in Dushanbe from April 4-6 to discuss border delimitation and demarcation, reportedly including the possibility of territorial transfers to connect the Tajik enclaves inside Kyrgyzstan with the rest of Tajikistan. Kyrgyz President Jeenbekov and Tajik President Rahmon talked via telephone on June 27, discussing bilateral cooperation and agreeing to speed up the delimitation and demarcation of the border.
- Tajikistan/Uzbekistan over border (Territory #876): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Delegations from the two governments held April talks in Dushanbe over border demarcation.
- Kyrgyzstan/Uzbekistan over border (Territory #880): bilateral negotiations (procedural agreement)
- Delegations from the two countries held border delimitation talks on May 16, reaching a decision to hold joint field surveys on disputed sections of the border.
- Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan over border (Territory #886): other (progress in demarcation)
- Delegations met in Gulistan from April 22-26 and in Almaty on May 25 to discuss final documents related to demarcation.
- Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan (No current claim): other (progress in demarcation)
- Turkmen and Uzbek delegations held demarcation talks in Urgench to consider demarcation progress in light of field work and aerial photography in the border area.
- China/India over Arunachal Pradesh/Southern Tibet (Territory #912): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale visited China on April 21 for talks with Chinese officials over "key issues concerning India-China relations."
- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met during the conference of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on June 13. Xi told Modi that China and India do not pose a threat to each other, and called for strengthening confidence building measures along the border. Modi described the meeting as "very fruitful," and they agreed to maintain peace and tranquility along the border and to instruct their negotiators to speed up the pace of border talks; the negotiators ("Special Representatives") had held the 21st round of talks in November 2018.
- India/Pakistan over [Indian-administered] Kashmir (Territory #922) and [Pakistani-administered] Kashmir (Territory #922): other (peacekeeping)
- The UNMOGIP peacekeeping force continued operations during the quarter (see related documents and publications).
- Indonesia/Malaysia over land border (Territory #961): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Malaysian Water, Land and Natural Resources Minister Dr Xavier Jayakumar reported in April that progress had been made in settling the border, with negotiations ongoing over nine areas in the Sabah-North Kalimantan and Sarawak-West Kalimantan sectors.
- Malaysia/Thailand over land border (Territory #962): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Malaysian Water, Land and Natural Resources Minister Dr Xavier Jayakumar reported in April that progress had been made in settling the border, with negotiations ongoing over four kilometres in the Bukit Jeli area.
- Brunei/China/Malaysia/Philippines/Taiwan/Vietnam over Spratly Islands (Territory #984 / Maritime #2802): multilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Negotiators from China and ASEAN met in Hangzhou, China, on May 17-18 to discuss a code of conduct to govern the South China Sea, which had been under discussion since 2002. Enough progress has been made recently that negotiators expressed optimism that a complete draft could be reached before the next meeting of their working group on July 21-22 in Penang, Malaysia. ASEAN leaders discussed the issue at their summit in June, during which they reaffirmed the importance of "maintaining and promoting peace, security, stability, safety and freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea," agreed to continue working toward the completion of the code of conduct, and called on states in the region to "exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities and avoid actions that may further complicate the situation."
- China/Philippines over Spratly Islands (Territory #984 / Maritime #2802): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Representatives of the two states held the fourth meeting of the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on 4/2/19 to discuss the recent incidents around Thitu Island (Pag-asa) and Scarborough Shoal (Panatag Shoal/Huangyan Island). The talks were described as a productive exchange of views, with each side committing to free navigation in the area and to managing their disputes by “peaceful means, without resorting to the threat or use of force.” It was later reported that the meeting had also negotiated toward a joint oil and gas exploration deal, following up on a November 2018 memorandum of understanding calling for such a deal.
- Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, and (among other issues) discussed the South China Sea issue. During the meeting, Duterte specifically mentioning the Chinese ships obstructing Filipino fishing near Thitu (Pag-asa), while Xi mentioned that his government did not recognize the Permanent Court of Arbitration's 2016 that had recognized the Philippines' 200 mile exclusive economic zone and rejected China's historical claim to most of the South China Sea. Xi stressed “the importance of good neighborliness and proper handling of differences,” and both agreed to work together to manage their disagreements through bilateral negotiations.
- It was reported in late June that Philippines President Duterte had previously reached a verbal agreement with Chinese President Xi allowing Chinese fishing vessels to operate in the Philippines EEZ. President spokesman Panelo indicated that the verbal agreement was legally binding, but Foreign Affairs Secretary Locsin argued that only a written document could be enforced, Cabinet Secretary Nograles argued that it would need to be passed by the Senate to take legal effect, and the Philippines Coast Guard reported that it had been given no instructions to modify its standard policy of turning away all foreign vessels intruding in the EEZ.
- France/Vanuatu over Matthew & Hunter Islands (Territory #978 / Maritime #2932): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Negotiators met in Brussels, Belgium, on June 24-25 to discuss the island question, their maritime boundary, and related issues. Progress was made, although no formal agreement was reached; the next round of talks was scheduled for late 2019 or early 2020 in Sydney, Australia.
River Claims
Western Hemisphere
- Canada/USA over Columbia River (River #1015): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Canadian and American negotiators met in Victoria, British Columbia, in April for the sixth round of talks since May 2018 over updating or replacing the 1964 Columbia River Treaty. The seventh round of talks was held in Washington, D.C., in June, with the next round scheduled for September in Cranbrook, British Columbia. Three Canadian indigenous nations (Ktunaxa Nation Council, Okanagan Nation Alliance and the Secwepemc Nation ) were added to the talks as official observers beginning with the June meeting.
- Brazil/Paraguay over Parana River - Itaipu Dam (River #1106): bilateral negotiations (unsuccessful substantive agreement)
- Brazilian and Paraguayan negotiators signed a secret treaty updating the 1973 treaty over the electricity produced by the dam. Paraguay's debt payments for construction of the dam under the original treaty are scheduled to end in 2022, so the terms for electricity payments needed to be renegotiated by 2023. Negotiations toward this new treaty began sometime after Brazil stopped its payments to the dam in February, leading to an urgent need for new talks, and the new treaty was signed in May. The details were not revealed until July (which will be covered in the next quarterly review), but once revealed they led to major political fallout in Paraguay, with at least four officials resigning and impeachment threats against others. After the public outcry, the two sides canceled the treaty on August 1, so this treaty was never carried out by either side.
- Bolivia/Chile over Silala River (River #1124): binding adjudication - ICJ (no agreement/case remains ongoing)
- The dispute remained under consideration at the International Court of Justice. On May 15, Bolivia filed a six-volume written reply to the Chilean filing of Feb. 15, where Chile had responded to the 2018 Bolivian counterclaim that the Silala waters were fully Bolivian.
Europe
- Hungary/Slovakia over Gabcikovo-Nagymaros Project (River #1306): binding adjudication - ICJ (no agreement/case remains ongoing)
- This case remained under consideration at the International Court of Justice during the quarter.
Africa
- Kenya/Tanzania over Mara River and tributaries (River #1502): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Tanzania's government reported on 4/29/19 that it was negotiating with Kenya to prevent the planned Kenyan construction of two dams on the Mara River and its tributaries, the Amala and Nyangores Rivers. The river, which emerges in the Mau Forest in Kenya's Rift Valley, is considered essential to the wildlife in the Serengeti ecosystem and to local tourism in both countries, and flows into Lake Victoria. The discussions had begun in 2016 after Tanzania learned that Kenya was planning to build the dams. Kenya vowed to continue with the dam construction, and noted that the project was a joint effort being implemented under the Nile Basin Initiative. In early May, Tanzania’s Deputy Minister for Tourism Constantine Kanyasu reported that his government was planning to take the matter to the East African Community for possible arbitration.
Middle East
- Iran/Iraq over Tigris River basin (River #17xx): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- As Iranian dam construction reduced the flow of water into Iraq, Iraqi officials were reported to be negotiating with Iran over a water sharing agreement, although no details were provided.
- Iraq/Turkey over Tigris River - Ilisu Dam (River #1724): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohamad al-Hakim on April 28, and (among other topics) discussed the water issue. He declared afterward that Turkey would address the issue “so we do not face any potential drought crisis in the future.”
Asia and Oceania
- India/Nepal over Gandaki and Kosi River flooding (River #1904-1906): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Nepalese and India river management officials met in May to discuss Nepalese complaints about flooding on the Gandaki and Kosi rivers in Nepalese fields during the rainy season. Nepal protested that India had built roughly ten embankments that block the rivers from flooding India, limiting the damage to Nepal; India acknowledged the "ongoing construction of roads and other structures" along the border but insisted that this should only be discussed through "diplomatic channels."
- Malaysia/Singapore over Johor River - pollution (River #1944): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- After seven incidents since 2017 where chemical spills or dumping affected rivers in Malaysia, Singapore became concerned about the Johor River, which is one of the main sources of water flowing into Singapore. The river was discussed at a 4/9/19 meeting of prime ministers, during which Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong raised "grave concerns" over the pollution. On 5/8/19 Singaporean Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan urged Malaysia to safeguard the river's water quality for the benefit of both states, and informed his parliament that Malaysia's province of Johor was aware of the concern and that both countries had expressed an interest in working together to safeguard the river.
Maritime Claims
Western Hemisphere
- Colombia/Nicaragua over Continental Shelf (Maritime #2064): binding adjudication - ICJ (no agreement/case remains ongoing)
- This case remained under consideration at the International Court of Justice during the quarter.
Europe
- Ireland/UK over Rockall fishing (Maritime #2xxx): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- The Irish and Scottish governments held a series of talks in June after Scotland threatened to arrest any Irish fishermen operating near Rockall Island. They agreed on "intensified engagement" between government officials to deescalate and settle the issue. One issue between them was the status of a 2013 maritime treaty between the UK and Ireland, which included the waters around Rockall in the UK's EEZ (and could thus remove them from EU waters where Irish fishing would be allowed after the UK completes its Brexit withdrawal from the EU); a spokesman for Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney indicated that Ireland does not dispute that Rockall is in the UK's economic zone, but disagrees that this would allow Scotland to claim it as sovereign territory and ban foreign fishing.
- Russia/Ukraine over Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov (Maritime #2362): binding arbitration - PCA (no agreement/case remains ongoing) / binding arbitration - ITLOS (no agreement/case remains ongoing)
- This case remained under consideration at the Permanent Court of Arbitration during the quarter. The PCA held a hearing from June 10-14 to consider Russia's argument that the PCA has no jurisdiction over the matter.
- This case remained under consideration at the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea during the quarter. The International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) began a hearing over this matter on May 10. Ukraine asked the tribunal to rule that Russia must return the three vessels that had been seized in November 2019, drop all charges, and release the 24 sailors who had been imprisoned. Russia refused to attend or participate, arguing that ITLOS has no jurisdiction over military activities. The tribunal ruled on May 25 by a 19-1 vote (with only the Russian judge dissenting) that Russia must release the ships and sailors, although rejecting a Ukrainian request to end legal proceedings against the sailors, and asked both sides to report to the tribunal about their compliance by June 25. A Russian court upheld the continued detention of the sailors, though, and Russia announced that it did not recognize the tribunal's jurisdiction in this case (the tribunal's decisions are considered legally binding for member states such as Russia and Ukraine, but it has no formal enforcement power). Russia declined to submit its report by June 25 due to its argument that the tribunal has no jurisdiction.
- U.S. President Trump asked Russian President Putin about the sailors while they were meeting at the G-20 summit in June. According to a Russian spokesman, Putin “gave the necessary explanations.” This does not appear to have been a formal mediation attempt seeking the release of the prisoners, as much as a topic of conversation.
Africa
- Ghana/Togo over Gulf of Guinea (Maritime #2xxx): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- Negotiators met on April 29-30 to discuss the maritime border, but no agreement was reached.
- Kenya/Somalia over Indian Ocean (Maritime #2xxx): binding adjudication - ICJ (no agreement/case remains ongoing) / bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- This case remained under consideration at the International Court of Justice during the quarter. Oral arguments on the case were scheduled for September 9-13.
- Kenyan Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Monica Juma met with Somali Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Ahmed Isse Awad on 4/3/19. The two agreed to normalize relations and return their ambassadors for the first time since February and discussed their ongoing maritime issue. Somalia reportedly also agreed to "revisit the actions" of the company that organized the February auction of exploration rights in potentially disputed waters, and to consider Kenya's request to support listing Al Shabab as a terrorist group under UN Resolution 1267; after Somalia declined to support the Al Shabab request and did not take decisive action to withdraw any maps from the auction that may have conflicted with Kenyan claims, Kenya felt that Somalia was not complying with the terms of the agreement, leading to a worsening of tensions in late May.
- According to the Kenyan government, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres mentioned this maritime issue to the UN Security Council in early June as a potential threat to peace and security in the region. The UNSC apparently did not take any action over it, though.
- Kenya's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported sending a letter to their Somali counterparts in June, asking them to abandon the ICJ case and handle the maritime question bilaterally. Somalia did not comply.
Middle East
- Israel/Lebanon over Eastern Mediterranean (Maritime #2708): non-binding mediation - USA (no agreement)
- Lebanon announced on 4/22/19 that it would seek to begin marking its maritime borders and exclusive economic zone, including the disputed border with Israel, with the assistance of the United Nations. A spokesperson for the UNIFIL peacekeeping operation indicated, though, that marking the maritime border was not part of the operation's current mandate and would need to be added to the mandate by the UN Security Council. Israel was reported in May to have refused to allow UN mediation without a new mandate from the Security Council.
- It was reported that the UN, United States, and Cyprus had all been working to mediate between Israel and Lebanon over the land and/or maritime borders, including U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's March visit to Israel and Lebanon and Cyprus Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulidis's March visit to Lebanon. Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri met with U.S. Ambassador Elizabeth Richard on May 9 to discuss a new framework for drawing the maritime border, seeking U.S. mediation to assist with the process, and U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield met with Lebanese President Michel Aoun, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil in Beirut on May 14-15. Satterfield then went to Israel to present Lebanon's proposals to Israeli officials and returned to Lebanon on May 20, where he informed the Lebanese government that Israel was willing to negotiate to settle the maritime border and to discuss disputed sections of the land border. The talks were to be held with U.S. mediation at the headquarters of the UNIFIL peacekeeping operation in Lebanon, although sources disagreed on whether Israel would allow the UN to be an active participant in the mediation. Satterfield met on May 27 with Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, who expressed his country's openness to talks with U.S. mediation “for the benefit of both countries’ interests in developing natural gas reserves and oil,” before returning to Beirut on May 28. Lebanese officials described the talks as making good progress toward determining the specific details of the negotiation process. An Israeli official stated on June 4 that the talks would only cover the maritime border, though, marking an apparent reversal of the government's earlier agreement to cover both the maritime and land borders. Satterfield met with Lebanese leaders on June 12, then made additional trips to meet with Israeli and Lebanese leaders on June 13-17 and again later in the month, seeking to finalize the dates and details of the talks; agreement was reportedly reached on talks that would begin in July, although that did not happen.
- Lebanon/Syria over Eastern Mediterranean (Maritime #2xxx): non-binding mediation - Russia (no agreement) / bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- In late June, Lebanon was reported to have requested Russian mediation to help resolve the maritime border between Lebanon and Syria (which is located near Russian military bases in Syria). Russia's envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, expressed interest during a June visit to Lebanon, noting that Russia was interested in promoting stabilization in the region. Russia then requested that Syria intensify contacts with Lebanon over the issue, leading to Syrian overtures to Lebanon over maritime border demarcation.
Asia and Oceania
- India/Sri Lanka over Palk Strait fishing (Maritime #2xxx): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- The leaders of the Indian and Sri Lankan coast guards met on April 8 in Colombo. The talks were reported afterwards to have focused on "issues of bilateral importance" and "maintaining close cooperation and a good relationship." In India, the Madras High Court issued an interim order in mid-April calling for the government to install transponders on roughly 5000 fishing boats, to ensure that they are able to avoid crossing into Sri Lankan waters.
- Indonesia/Vietnam over Natuna Islands fishing rights (Maritime #2816): bilateral negotiations (functional agreement)
- Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc met on June 22 at the ASEAN Summit in Bangkok, and agreed to accelerate ongoing negotiations on the delimitation of their exclusive economic zones.
- Indonesian and Vietnamese defense officials met on June 25 to discuss intrusions by each side's fishermen in the other side's waters. They agreed to treat any such fishermen humanely, stopping their activity but not arresting them or seizing their gear; to use a hotline to resolve any incidents that should arise; and to consider establishing a joint operations team to deal with future maritime incidents.
- Australia/East Timor over Timor Gap (Maritime #2862): other (progress toward ratification)
- The Portuguese news agency Lusa reported that Australia and East Timor were working to complete ratification of their 2018 maritime treaty by the end of August 2019. This included making any needed changes to domestic laws that would otherwise conflict with the treaty, such as East Timor's Oil Fund Law, Oil Activities Law, Tax Law, and Timor Gap Law.
- Malaysia/Singapore over airspace and waters (Maritime #2xxx): bilateral negotiations (functional agreement)
- The two countries' transport ministers agreed on April 6 to end the dispute over airspace, with Singapore withdrawing its new instrumented landing system for the Seletar airport that brought landing planes through Malaysian airspace, and with Malaysia ending its declaration of restricted airspace around its nearby industrial area of Pasir Gudang. The prime ministers met in Putrajaya on April 9, and agreed that they would begin talks over Malaysia gradually reclaiming control of its airspace in southern Johor between now and 2023; that airspace had been granted to Singaporean flight control in 1974.
- As agreed in March, on April 8 the two governments suspended the expanded maritime claims around Johor Bahru and Tuas that they had claimed in late 2018, and Malaysia removed its government vessels that had been anchoring in the disputed waters. The countries' prime ministers then met in Putrajaya on April 9 to discuss their remaining issues. They agreed that all issues of concern should be resolved in a friendly and constructive manner, and said that talks on the maritime border would begin within a month.
- The Malaysia-Singapore Committee on Maritime Boundary Delimitation met for the first time on May 13. The meeting was described as "constructive," "successful," and "a good basis for further negotiations," agreeing to establish a sub-committee to address the legal and technical aspects of delimitation.
- Indonesia/Philippines over maritime border (Maritime #2xxx): other (completed ratification)
- The Philippines Senate ratified the 2014 “Agreement between the Government of the Republic of Philippines and the Government of the Republic of Indonesia Concerning the Delimitation of the Exclusive Economic Zone Boundary” on June 3. The treaty, which settles the maritime border in the Celebes Sea and Mindanao Sea and allows the peaceful navigation by both Filipino and Indonesian vessels, was previously ratified by Indonesia in April 2017. It will enter into force later in 2019 upon the formal exchange of instruments of ratification by the two foreign ministers.
Identity Claims
Western Hemisphere
- (none)
Europe
- Cyprus/Turkey over Turks in TRNC (Identity #3xxx): other (peacekeeping)
- The UNFICYP peacekeeping force continued operations during the quarter (see related documents and publications).
- Moldova/Russia over Russians in Transnistria (Identity #3294): other (announcement of negotiations)
- Russian Ambassador-at-Large Sergey Gubarev announced on June 28 that the next round of 5+2 talks over Transnistria would be held in Slovakia in September, more than a year after the previous round. The 5+2 talks involve the primary parties of Moldova and Transnistria as well as Russia, Ukraine, and the OSCE as mediators and the United States and EU as observers.
- Russia/Ukraine over Russians in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine (Identity #3302): non-binding mediation - OSCE (no agreement)
- The Trilateral Contact Group (Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE) held several rounds of talks during the quarter over a recommitment to a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons, disengagement of forces, and more protection for civilians. The talks failed to reach agreement, and the OSCE warned that the deepening divide between the east and the rest of Ukraine was making settlement more difficult. Ukrainian forces did complete their withdrawal from Stanitsa Luganskaya, the third of three zones where it was called for under a 2016 agreement, on June 30.
- Talks in the Contact Group's humanitarian subgroup reached agreement in Minsk on June 19 to compile lists of prisoners in preparation for an exchange, with additional discussions ongoing to determine the procedures that would be used. The separatists released four Ukrainian government prisoners on June 28.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met with Swiss Foreign Minister Cassis regarding possible Swiss mediation over the Ukrainian economic blockade of separatist-held eastern Ukraine.
- Talks to attempt to settle the issue under the Normandy format (involving Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany) were scheduled for Paris in July.
- Ukraine/Russia over Ukrainians in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine (Identity #3302): binding adjudication - ICJ (no agreement/case remains ongoing)
- This case remained under consideration at the International Court of Justice during the quarter.
- Albania/Greece over Greeks in Albania (Identity #3322): bilateral negotiations (no agreement)
- The prime ministers of Greece and Albania held a telephone conversation on April 4 regarding the March 30 Albanian decision to expropriate Greek-owned houses in the coastal area around Himara. No formal agreement was reported from the conversation, but the order for the expropriation had been removed from Albania's online Government Gazette several days earlier.
Africa
- (none)
Middle East
- (none)
Asia and Oceania
- Armenia/Azerbaijan claim over Nagorno-Karabakh (Identity #3842): non-binding mediation - OSCE (no agreement)
- The two countries' foreign ministers met with the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs in Moscow on April 15 for the next round of talks. No agreement was reached, but the ministers confirmed their intention to continue efforts to resolve the dispute through peaceful means, and to take humanitarian measures such as allowing relatives to visit prisoners of war and stabilizing the region during the upcoming agricultural season.
- The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (representatives from France, Russia, and the United States) and the personal representative of the OSCE chairperson met with leaders in Armenia on May 27 and in Azerbaijan on May 30. They offered proposals for progress on humanitarian and security matters as well as the next steps in settling the issue, and the two governments agreed to meet soon for the next round of negotiations.
- The next round of OSCE-mediated talks was held in Washington, DC, on June 20. The mediators from the U.S., Russia, and France asked both Armenia and Azerbaijan to "take immediate measures to restore an atmosphere conducive to peace and favorable to substantive talks" and to "reaffirm their commitment to observe the ceasefire strictly and to refrain from any provocative action." The mediators also reportedly offered substantive proposals, but the details of these proposals were not released publicly. The two foreign ministers pledged to meet again "in the near future" and agreed on the need to avoid escalation, with both sides describing the meeting in positive terms but no sign of substantive progress toward settlement.
Case Summaries: Potential Claims
These cases have some elements of a territorial, river, maritime, or identity claim, but do not currently meet the complete ICOW definition. Typical reasons include the lack of explicit government statements (some of these demands were made by private citizens and not supported overtly -- or even disavowed publicly -- by their governments) or the lack of an explicit demand (e.g. governments stating the need for a route to the sea or better water security without stating the territory or river where this was sought). These cases are worth monitoring as potential future claims, should the situation or the demands made by the potential challenger state change, and they also help to illustrate ICOW coding rules regarding what does and does not qualify as codable claims.
Territorial Claims
- Arctic territory (various claimants): other (Arctic territory)
- On May 23, Canada deposited its claim to an Arctic continental shelf with the UN's Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, including the North Pole itself and 1.2 million sq km of the seabed. The seven other Arctic states (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States) have also made specific claims to Arctic waters and/or seabed in recent years, and non-Arctic states such as China have also expressed interest in the area. ICOW does not currently code territorial claims involving Arctic or Antarctic territory, because this is considered different from non-polar lands that has clear state sovereignty and administration; similar data sets such as Huth and Allee's also exclude such lands.
- Argentina/Uruguay over Timoteo Dominguez-Martin Garcia border (Territory #168?): no explicit contention
- The 1973 treaty between Argentina and Uruguay settled their border in the Rio de la Plata by determining Martin Garcia Island to be Argentine territory located within Uruguayan waters, and Timoteo Dominguez to be Uruguayan. The treaty also contained a provision for delineating the land border should these two islands ultimately merge due to sedimentation, which occurred in 2018 (or perhaps earlier); the border in this case was to follow the limits of Martin Garcia as specified in the treaty. A commission was formed in December 2018 to determine and mark the border, and began its operations in April 2019. This does not qualify as a renewal of the previous territorial claim that ended with the 1973 treaty, because there is no disagreement over the border and the commission is implementing the terms of that treaty.
- Belarus/Russia over Belarus?: no explicit contention
- After meeting with Belarusian President Lukashenko on June 21, Russian Prime Minister Medvedev reported that the two governments were making good progress on their road maps for integration, with tentative plans to have them ready for presidential consideration in July and for formal approval in November. As noted in the 2019 1st quarter review, there has been speculation that integration could be a pretext for Russian annexation of Belarus, but both sides denied that speculation then, and there remains no evidence of the type of explicit Russian demand for sovereignty over Belarus that would be needed for this to qualify as a territorial claim.
- Bosnia/Montenegro/Serbia over border tripoint?: no explicit contention
- The three countries signed a protocol over the location of their border tripoint on May 15. There did not appear to be qualifying territorial claim with competing demands over the location of the tripoint, though, and the leaders' statements after signing the protocol described it as a sign of friendly cooperation between neighbors and an important step toward EU membership rather than an end to a period of disagreement.
- China/Taiwan over Spratly Islands (Territory #984 / Maritime #2802?): no explicit contention
- China declared a moratorium on fishing from May-August in about half of the South China Sea, mostly in areas also claimed by other states, to "promote sustainable marine fishery development and improve marine ecology.". The Chinese Coast Guard reported that it would monitor the zone covered by this moratorium 24 hours a day and would take action against any violators. While Vietnam and the Philippines protested the ban as a violation of their sovereignty, Taiwan warned its fishermen about the ban. Even if Taiwan had protested, though, this would be coded as part of the overall Chinese claim to Taiwan (they both agree that there is one China that has sovereignty over the South China Sea; they just disagree over which government it is); neither the territorial claims nor maritime claims data set codes a separate China/Taiwan claim over part or all of the Spratly Islands.
- Cyprus/UK over Sovereign Base Areas?: no official government actor
- A group of opposition parties in Cyprus' legislature asked their government to demand the return of the UK's Sovereign Base Areas on Cyprus, in light of Brexit and the International Court of Justice's advisory opinion that the UK should return the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius. The majority party in the legislature disagreed, supporting the government's official position that the issue should not be raised. These two base areas (Akrotiri and Dhekelia) cover about 98 square miles of territory on the island of Cyprus, and were granted to the UK in a 1960 treaty with the new government of Cyprus. There would need to be explicit demands by the government of Cyprus, not just opposition parties in the legislature, for this to qualify as a territorial claim.
- Denmark/Russia over Arctic airspace?: no explicit contention
- Danish Defense Minister Frederiksen warned on May 21 that Denmark would deploy warplanes to bases in Greenland if Russia violated Greenland's Arctic airspace. This does not currently qualify as a territorial claim, though, as there has not been an explicit Russian claim to Danish airspace or territory in the area.
- Ethiopia/Somalia over Somalia?: no official government actor
- A map of Africa that showed the territory of Somalia as part of Ethiopia, except for Somaliland which was shown as an independent country, was posted to the web site of Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs in May. There was a rapid outcry from Somalis who feared that the map indicated Ethiopian designs on Somali territory, but the ministry responded by calling the map "wrong and unacceptable" and removing it. There would need to be explicit statements by the Ethiopian government rather than disavowals, for this to qualify as a territorial claim.
- Hungary/Slovenia over Prekmurje (Territory #324?): no explicit contention
- On Hungary's Day of National Unity (June 4), which commemorates the loss of substantial amounts of territory in the 1920 Treaty of Trianon, a Twitter account that is maintained by Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's International Communications Office tweeted a map of Hungary's 1920 territory showing the amount of land and the number of ethnic Hungarians that were transferred to each neighbor with the caption "2/3 of the country was taken away." Slovenia's Foreign Ministry and prime minister condemned the tweet, noting that it "does not contribute to the strengthening of the EU values of cooperation and good-neighbourly relations." The tweet by itself is not sufficient evidence of a territorial claim, which would require explicit statements by Hungarian foreign policymakers demanding the return of Prekmurje.
- India/Sri Lanka over Katchatheevu (Territory #936)?: no official government actor
- After Sri Lanka seized three Indian fishing boats along the maritime border, there were demands in India's state of Tamil Nadu for the return of Katchatheevu, an island in Palk Strait that India recognized as Sri Lankan in the 1970s. These demands were not supported by the Indian government, though, which would be necessary for this to be coded as a territorial claim.
- Ireland/UK over Northern Ireland (Territory #200)?: no official government actor
- Exit polling after the May 24 European Parliament elections in Ireland included the question "If there was a referendum on a United Ireland tomorrow, would you vote YES in favor, or NO against?" 65% of respondents indicated that they would vote in favor of uniting Ireland, 19% would vote against, and 15% said they were not sure or refused to answer. This was not a binding question, and it was only asked during exit polling rather than as part of the actual election, but the Sinn Fein party in Northern Ireland has been using the impending loss of EU membership due to Brexit to campaign for unification with Ireland (which will remain an EU member). The Irish government has not yet made any explicit demand for unification or for a referendum over the possibility, which would be needed for this to qualify as a territorial claim.
- Israel/Palestine over West Bank?: no state government actor
- Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced plans to begin annexing territory around Jewish villages in the West Bank, and U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman indicated tacit U.S. support for the idea: “Under certain circumstances, I think Israel has the right to retain some, but unlikely all, of the West Bank.” This is not an interstate territorial claim because the Palestinian Authority is not currently a recognized nation-state, and no other state has claimed sovereignty over the West Bank since Jordan renounced its claim in 1988.
- Italy vs. Croatia/Slovenia over Trieste/Istria/Dalmatia?: no official government actor
- Lorenzo Giorgi, a municipal councillor of the Italian city of Trieste, celebrated Italy's Republic Day (June 2) by posting a map on his Facebook page that showed parts of Slovenia and Croatia as Italian. The Slovenian prime minister and foreign ministry protested this as violating the basic principles of the European system. This does not qualify as a territorial or identity claim because Giorgi is not authorized to make Italian foreign policy, so even if he did intend to argue that the areas should be Italian, he could not make this argument on behalf of the government.
- Kenya/Uganda border (Territory #534)?: other (border agreed but poorly marked)
- Five Ugandan police officers strayed nearly 5km into Kenyan territory on 4/20/19 while pursuing a truck of smugglers. They were disarmed and questioned by Kenyan authorities before being released. There is no territorial claim here because the border is agreed, although it is not marked in this area.
- Kuwait/Saudi over Neutral Zone (Territory #760?): no explicit territorial contention
- Kuwaiti and Saudi negotiators met in Riyadh in June to discuss reopening oil production in the Partitioned Neutral Zone, an area along the border where they had divided administrative responsibilities in the 1960s but continued to share oil revenue. All oil production in the zone had been stopped in 2014-2015 due to disagreements, but the latest round of talks reportedly brought the two sides close to an agreement. This does not appear to qualify as a renewal of the past territorial claims over the area, because the disagreements -- while not specified clearly in most reporting -- appear to involve oil licensing, exploration, and production in the neutral zone rather than territorial sovereignty over part or all of it.
- Moldova/Transnistria over Varnita?: no state government actor
- Following mediation by the OSCE, Transnistria reversed its January 2019 decision to claim the village of Varnita. This does not qualify as a territorial claim because Transnistria is not a recognized nation-state.
- Mozambique/South Africa over border?: no explicit contention
- Three South African soldiers crossed 10 km into Mozambique on June 16. They were encountered by three patrolling Mozambican frontier guards near Ponta do Ouro, and after an argument the South Africans killed two of the three and fled. This appears to be an isolated incident, rather than a government-sanctioned event, and the South African government apologized to Mozambique for the incident on June 27. Each side initially investigated the incident separately, although there were calls to share information and to have members from the other side in each investigation.
- Romania/Ukraine over unspecified territory?: no official government actor
- Anatoly Matios, Chief Military Prosecutor of Ukraine, posted on Facebook in early June to complain about an online video showing Romanian forces occupying Ukrainian territory during a Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. The video turned out to have been produced by Dan Ionescu, an amateur science fiction writer, who claimed to support Ukraine's territorial integrity and who was just writing a work of fiction. There was no sign of support for such views in the Romanian government, which would be needed for this to qualify as a territorial claim, although Romanian nationalists had made similar demands in recent years.
- Rwanda/Uganda over border?: no explicit contention
- Rwandan soldiers pursuing two smugglers allegedly crossed into Ugandan territory on May 24, killing the Rwandan alleged smuggler and one Ugandan civilian. Ugandan soldiers then intervened to disperse the Rwandan soldiers, impound the deceased smuggler's motorcycle and its cargo, and arrest the smuggler's accomplice. Uganda protested the incident as a criminal act and a violation of Ugandan sovereignty, but Rwanda denied the Ugandan description of events and claimed that the incident had occurred on the Rwandan side of the border after its soldiers had been attacked with machetes. There does not appear to have been an ongoing territorial claim related to this incident.
- Syria/Turkey over "security zone"?: no explicit contention
- On June 13, forces from Syrian-held territory fired on Turkish positions near Idlib, Syria, where Turkish forces had been stationed to protect Turkish territory from attacks by Kurdish forces or other spillovers from the Syrian civil war. The Turkish forces returned fire, and Turkey protested to both Syria and its ally Russia; Russian warplanes later bombed the rebel positions from where the shelling occurred. The Syrian government indicated that it had no wish to see Syrian/Turkish fighting, but noted that the area where the Turkish forces had been attacked was Syrian territory. Renewed shelling killed one Turkish soldier and wounded three more near Idlib on June 27, leading the Turkish forces to return fire and to protest to both Syria and Russia. This is not currently a territorial claim because Turkey has made no explicit claim to the territory in northern Syria that it is occupying; this appears to be a temporary measure while the fighting lasts in the Syrian civil war and there is a potential threat of Kurdish forces controlling the area along the Syria/Turkey border.
- UAE/Yemen over Socotra Island?: no explicit contention
- Yemen accused the UAE of sending separatist fighters to Socotra, with the goal of seizing it from Yemen. The UAE denied this accusation, and there is no evidence so far of such a claim being made by official UAE government representatives who are authorized to make foreign policy.
River Claims
- Eswatini [Swaziland]/Mozambique over Mbuluzi/Umbeluzi River?: no explicit contention
- Mozambique was reported to have requested (and received) a river sharing arrangement with Eswatini that guaranteed a greater supply of water from this river, to ensure sufficient water availability for the Pequenos Libombos dam in its Maputo province. This appears to have been pursued through friendly talks, rather than through explicit demands that would constitute a river claim.
- Mexico/USA over Tijuana River/Santa Cruz River pollution?: no official government actor
- Mexican cities near the border, with inadequate sewage systems that can not handle the demand of their growing populations, have been dumping raw or partially-treated sewage into the Tijuana River, which then empties into the Pacific Ocean near San Diego and affects the quality of water, beaches, and the local environment. San Diego-based SurfRiders has sued the International Boundary and Water Commission for failing to take action to stop this. State and local officials have met with their Mexican counterparts, but there is no formal U.S. government demand that would qualify as a river claim; the governments on both sides of the border (so far) have been working cooperatively to address the issue.
- A similar issue has made news around Nogales, Arizona, where Mexican sewage systems are struggling to keep up with the increasing volume of sewage being generated by the growing population. The excess sewage runs through the Nogales Wash and ultimately into the Santa Cruz River. As with the situation in California, the governments on both sides of the border are working cooperatively to address the issue, with the assistance of the International Boundary and Water Commission and the North American Development Bank.
Maritime Claims
- China/France over freedom of navigation?: no explicit contention
- A French warship crossed through the Taiwan Strait on April 7. Chinese warships were sent to investigate and to warn the French ship to leave the area, and the Chinese government protested that it had "illegally entered Chinese waters." France responded to the protest by reaffirming its commitment to "freedom of navigation under maritime law" and noting that French ships cross the Strait about once a year without incident. France then announced on May 28 that it would be deploying its aircraft carrier battle group to Asia for five months to demonstrate French commitment to freedom of navigation, and in June reiterated its commitment to ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Freedom of navigation operations like this, where France is seeking to ensure that navigation rights in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea are not limited, do not qualify as maritime claims unless there is an explicit disagreement over navigation in specific waters.
- China/USA over South China Sea/East China Sea?: no explicit contention
- Three U.S. senators introduced the South China Sea and East China Sea Sanctions Act in the Senate in May, seeking to impose sanctions on Chinese individuals and companies that expand the Chinese presence in any area that is contested by at least one ASEAN member. Even if the bill passes, though, it would not be enough to qualify as a U.S./Chinese claim, as the main purpose is to reinforce that the U.S. “opposes actions by the government of any country to interfere in the free use of waters and airspace in the South China Sea or East China Sea” -- there is no claim that the waters or islands should be under U.S. sovereignty.
- The U.S. guided missile destroyers USS Preble and USS Chung-Hoon conducted a May 6 freedom of navigation operation by sailing within 12 miles of Gaven and Johnson Reefs, two Chinese-controlled features in the disputed Spratly (Nansha) Island chain. China protested this as a violation of Chinese soveeignty, and warned the U.S. vessels to leave Chinese waters. The Preble then conducted a freedom of navigation operation on May 19 near Scarborough Reef in the Spratly (Nansha) chain, leading China to respond by asking the US. to stop such "provocative actions." Freedom of navigation operations like this, where the U.S. is seeking to ensure that navigation rights are not limited, do not qualify as maritime claims unless there is an explicit disagreement over navigation in specific waters.
- China/Vietnam over Gulf of Tonkin (Maritime #2812?): no explicit contention
- China announced plans to deploy "Dongfang 13-2 CEPB," its second largest offshore oil production and processing platform, in the Yinggehai Basin in the Gulf of Tonkin. Vietnamese officials carefully scrutinized the location, which lies between China's Hainan Island and the Vietnamese coast, to determine whether it violated the maritime border established by the 2004 Sino-Vietnamese Agreement on Maritime Boundary Delimitation in the Gulf of Tonkin. If it does, this could signal a renewed maritime claim over the Gulf of Tonkin, although so far that does no appear to be the case.
- China/Philippines over eastern South China Sea (Territory #984 / Maritime #2802?): no explicit contention
- China announced that its deep sea drilling platform "Haiyang Shiyou 981" (HYSY 981) had completed drilling its first deep-water development in the eastern South China Sea. This platform had been involved in the 2014 China/Vietnam drilling standoff around the Paracel Islands, but this current development was reportedly located within recognized Chinese waters near the Philippines' EEZ -- in which case this would not qualify as part of a maritime claim.
- Cyprus/Lebanon over Eastern Mediterranean (Maritime #2664?): no explicit contention
- The two governments announced in April that they were working on a bilateral agreement over sharing any oil resources that might be found along their maritime border. This does not currently qualify as a maritime claim because (unlike Lebanon's maritime borders with Israel and Syria) there does not appear to be any current disagreement over the location of the maritime border; this appears to be a case of working together for mutual advantage in case oil is found along the border.
- Iran/USA over Strait of Hormuz?: no explicit contention
- After the U.S. tightened economic sanctions on Iran on April 22 by ending waivers that had allowed a few countries to purchase Iranian oil despite the U.S. sanctions, senior Iranian officials threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response (which would affect around 1/3 of all world oil exports). The Chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, Major-General Mohammad Baqeri, indicated that Iran hoped that the closure would not be needed, but that "If our oil does not pass, the oil of others shall not pass the Strait of Hormuz either." The U.S. deployed an aircraft carrier battle group and a land-based bomber task force to the region in early May, in response to "troubling and escalatory indications and warnings" by Iran and Iranian threats against U.S. forces or other U.S. interests in Iraq. The U.S. then blamed Iran for attacks on two oil tankers in the area on June 13, although Iran denied the charge. Iranian forces shot down a U.S. drone on June 20, although Iran claimed that this occurred over Iranian territory and the U.S. claimed that it occurred in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz. These actions do not currently qualify as a maritime claim, as there is no explicit attempt to block navigation through the strait, but an Iranian decision to carry out the threat would likely produce a claim between Iran, the U.S., and possibly other powers.
- Malaysia/Vietnam over fishing?: no official government actor
- During the month of May, Malaysian patrol boats inspected 496 foreign boats fishing in Malaysian waters, seizing 41 Vietnamese fishing boats for illegal fishing. This does not seem to qualify as a maritime claim because the fishermen appear to have been acting as private citizens; there is no clear Vietnamese government involvement in their actions.
- Maldives/Sri Lanka over fishing?: no official government actor
- The Maldivian government agreed to release the Sri Lankan fishermen who had been arrested in March for fishing in Maldivian waters. 21 of the 25 detained fishermen were released on April 13. This does not seem to qualify as a maritime claim because the fishermen appear to have been acting as private citizens; there is no clear Sri Lankan government involvement in their actions.
- Pakistan/Sri Lanka over fishing?: no official government actor
- Pakistani forces apprehended 5 Sri Lankan fishermen in May for fishing in Pakistani waters. This does not seem to qualify as a maritime claim because the fishermen appear to have been acting as private citizens; there is no clear Sri Lankan government involvement in their actions.
- Russia/USA in Western Pacific?: no explicit contention
- The U.S. guided missile cruiser Chancellorsville and the Russian destroyer Admiral Vinogradov nearly collided on June 7, coming within 100 feet of each other. Each side blamed the other's actions for causing the incident, which the U.S. described as occurring in the Philippine Sea and Russia described as occurring in the East China Sea. This appears to be a single incident, which would not qualify as a maritime claim unless there is an explicit disagreement over navigation rights in specific waters.
- Taiwan/Vietnam over pollution?: no official government actor
- About 8000 Vietnamese citizens filed suit in Taipei against the Taiwanese company Formosa Plastics Group (FPG) over 2016 pollution discharges from its steel mill in central Vietnam, which killed fish along a 210 km stretch of coast and was estimated to have cost up to 40,000 fishermen's jobs. FPG had admitted guilt in 2016 and had paid US$500 million in damages to the Vietnamese government, but the plaintiffs in this suit alleged that they had received little of this payment. This is not a claim in 2019, as the Vietnamese government was satisfied by the 2016 settlement, and some of the plaintiffs in this suit are worried about pressure from their government to drop the claim.
- USA/Venezuela over Venezuelan territorial waters?: no explicit contention
- The U.S. Coast Guard cutter James was patrolling waters about 14 nautical miles from the Venezuelan port of La Guaira. The Venezuelan Navy considered this a provocation and a violation of its maritime "contiguous zone", and ordered it to leave Venezuelan waters; it complied. This does not currently qualify as a maritime claim because there was no explicit U.S. demand over navigation rights.
Identity Claims
Identity claims have another requirement that can keep some potential claims from qualifying for the data set. Rather than reinvent the wheel by trying to create our own new list of ethnic groups that are shared by two or more countries, we use the groups as identified by the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) and Transborder Ethnic Kin (TEK) data sets, which are the leading data sources for scholars of ethnic conflict. This means that any events involving groups that are not coded by those data sets can not be coded in our data set -- which typically occurs in situations where the group in question has very few members in the potential target state, or where the group members are not politically organized in the target state or do not share loyalty to the group beyond their borders.
- Azeris/Azerbaijanis (TEK #205): Azerbaijan/Russia?: no official government actor
- A Russian and an Azerbaijani -- both very drunk -- engaged in a brawl outside a nightclub in the Russian village of Nizhniye Sergi (in the Sverdlovsk region) on June 22, leading to the death of the Azerbaijani man. Although an autopsy indicated that he had died from a heart attack due to a preexisting heart condition, members of the local Azerbaijani community began calling for revenge on social media, and local Russians began organizing for defense; several buildings were burned on June 24. Azerbaijan's consul general called the incident "an ordinary domestic conflict" and promised an investigation, while urging a peaceful solution to the conflict; based on this, there is clearly no codable demand between the governments that would allow this to qualify as an identity claim.
- Baloch/Baluchis (TEK #362): Iran/Pakistan?: no explicit contention
- A Balochi group claimed responsibility for a 4/18/19 attack in which 14 Pakistani security personnel were killed after being abducted from buses in Pakistan's Balochistan province. Pakistan blamed Iran, alleging that the group was operating from camps within Iran and demanding that Iranian authorities take action against the camps. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan traveled to Iran on 4/21/19 for talks with Iranian officials, leading to an agreement to establish a joint border security force to stop cross-border terrorism. This situation could qualify as an identity claim if Iran were to make explicit demands over the treatment of the Baloch in Pakistan (rather than allegedly tolerating Balochi groups in Iran or providing covert support), but there has been no evidence of this so far.
- Bosniaks/Muslims (TEK #207): Montenegro/Serbia?: no official government actor
- On June 10, the Bosniak National Council in Serbia (a state-designated body representing the Bosniak/Muslim community) wrote to the governments of Montenegro and Serbia to ask for special status for Sandjak. This is a predominantly Bosniak/Muslim-populated region straddling the border between Montenegro and Serbia. The Serbian government was not pleased, with Defense Minister Vulin warning of the risk of war and others calling for a crackdown on potential separatism or other demands. There does not appear to be any Montenegrin government support for the requests, which would be needed for this to qualify as an interstate identity claim.
- Kazakhs (TEK #218): China/Kazakhstan?: no official government actor
- Responding to questions from Kazakh journalists, Chinese Ambassador Zhang Xiao rejected accusations of improper treatment of Kazakhs, Uighurs, and other minorities in Xinjiang as "false information" and denied any wrongdoing. The accusations were made by activists and relatives of Kazakh individuals living in China, though, rather than the Kazakh government, and the government has showed no signs of supporting them or making demands on their behalf.
- Kurds (TEK #302): Iraq/Turkey?: no explicit contention
- Turkish military forces entered Iraq on May 27 to pursue PKK Kurdish rebels that were operating in Turkey from bases in northern Iraq. This does not currently qualify as an identity claim, because the Turkish government is not making any explicit demands against the Iraqi government -- it is just attacking the Kurds; a claim could begin if Turkey starts to make such demands.
- Muslims (TEK #365): Pakistan/Sri Lanka?: no official government actor
- A Muslim extremist group claimed responsibility for a series of bombings at Sri Lankan churches and hotels on Eastern Sunday that killed more than 250 people. Muslims in Sri Lanka, many of whom came from Pakistan, were blamed by many other Sri Lankans, and there were reports of mobs attacking Pakistanis or damaging their houses; several Pakistanis were arrested, and hundreds fled their homes in search of a safer location. At this point, we have seen no evidence that the Pakistani government has protested the treatment of the Muslims in Sri Lanka, which would need to happen before this can be coded as an identity claim.
- Pashtuns (TEK #360): Afghanistan/Pakistan?: no explicit contention
- A May 26 clash between Pakistani soldiers and followers of a Pashtun nationalist movement near the Afghan border led to 13 dead and 25 wounded. Pakistani officials alleged that the movement had received funding from the Afghan and Indian intelligence agencies, and Afghan leaders had previously expressed hopes that the Pashtun movement could succeed in eradicating terrorism in the region, but there is no current evidence of explicit Afghan demands against the Pakistani government over the status or treatment of Pashtuns.
- Rohingya/Muslim Arakanese (TEK #356): Bangladesh/Myanmar?: no codable EPR/TEK group
- On June 10, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina accused Myanmar of failing to live up to its agreement with Bangladesh to repatriate over one million Muslim Rohingya who had fled Myanmar. This currently doesn't qualify as a codable identity claim, because the EPR and TEK data sets don't include a relevant group in both states (the group known popularly as Rohingya is coded by EPR and TEK as "Muslim Arakanese", which is coded in Myanmar as TEK #356 along with the group "Indians"; the only other states currently coded with members of TEK group #356 are India and Mauritius).
- Russians (TEK #201): Georgia/Russia?: no explicit contention
- On June 22, the Russian foreign ministry demanded that the Georgian government ensure the safety of Russian journalists and other Russian citizens in Georgia; the next day, Russian Human Rights Commissioner Moskalkova called on Georgian Public Defender Lomjaria to help protect the rights of Russian citizens in Georgia. For several days before this, there had been street demonstrations by thousands of Georgians after a Russian delegation arrived at the Inter-parliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy (at Georgia's invitation) on June 20 to discuss cooperation between Orthodox communities across borders; the IAO president -- a Russian delegate -- opened the session in Georgia's parliament chamber from the parliament speaker's seat, leading to protests that shut down the Assembly. Russian journalists covering the event were threatened but not physically harmed. At least 240 people were injured during the protests, although none of them were reportedly Russians; as of June 23 the Russian government had heard no complaints from Russian nationals in Georgia. The Russian government responded to the protests by urging Russian tourists to leave Georgia, and by temporarily banning Russian tour companies from bringing Russians to Georgia and Georgian airlines from flying to Russia beginning on July 8. This does not currently qualify as an identity claim because there is no codable demand being made; asking a foreign government to ensure the safety of one's citizens during unrest is commonplace, and there appears to have been no direct threat to ethnic Russians in Georgia during the protests.
- Uighur/Uyghurs (TEK #241): Malaysia-China?: no codable EPR/TEK group
- Responding to criticism for ignoring the plight of the Muslim Uyghurs, Malaysian Defence Minister Sabu indicated that his government had been raising the issue through diplomatic channels. This does not qualify as an identity claim, though, because the data set is based on ethnic/identity groups as determined by the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) data set. The EPR data currently only lists Uyghurs as present in China, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.
http://www.paulhensel.org/rev2019q2s.html
First posted: 30 August 2019 (Last updated 25 January 2020)
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